Joe Fortenbaugh slams Texas win-total, predicts under 10.5: 'We haven’t seen enough from Arch Manning'

Oddsmakers have set Texas‘ win total at 10.5 to begin the 2025 college football season. ESPN’s Joe Fortenbaugh is adamant that you should be on the under.

The analyst joined ESPN’s Get Up on Friday to deliver his take. With some tough games on their schedule, he’s expecting the Longhorns to miss their mark this season.

“Less, and this is one where I get aggressive. 10.5, and remember, bowl games don’t count. Playoff games don’t count. Conference championship games don’t count. Just the 12-game regular season,” Fortenbaugh stated.

“So, if you price someone at 10.5, what you’re telling us is that you have an elite quarterback. Arch Manning, he might be an elite quarterback. I’ve only seen 95 career passes. What does that tell us? I’m going to go under. Two big (under)dog spots in Ohio State and Georgia.”

Many have Texas as their national championship pick, so Fortenbaugh’s analysis may seem a bit shocking. Still, the Longhorns could very well miss out on their 10.5 mark and win the title, although they’ll face a more difficult path.

One person who believes in the Longhorns wholeheartedly is ESPN’s Paul Finebaum. He predicted Manning would lead Texas to a national championship victory earlier this month.

“I think the SEC will make it back to the championship game, and I think it’s going to be Texas,” Finebaum said on SportsCenter. “Yes, we’ve had plenty to say about Arch Manning, but that’s not the only thing that Steve Sarkisian has. He has the best team in the country, top to bottom; that is his best roster.

“He says that, not me. For that reason, I think they may lose one game along the way, but they’re going to be the national champion when it’s over.”

It’s been 20 years since Texas won the national title and well over a decade since they last even appeared in the national championship. But with two semifinal appearances in a row, perhaps the third time’s the charm for Texas and the SEC.

They’re talented on both sides of the football, and there’s no doubt Manning has the it-factor. However, he lacks experience compared to some of the other top quarterbacks in college football. 

Time will tell whether or not Texas can prove its supporters right and its doubters wrong. The Longhorns kick their 2025 regular season off against the reigning national champion Ohio State Buckeyes during Week 1, so the chance to make an instant impact is there.