Joel Klatt: Arch Manning is '20 starts away' from being an NFL-level QB

Joel Klatt is fine with letting Arch Manning develop in college football at Texas. He said the Longhorns’ star is 20 starts, or so, away from being an NFL-ready signal caller.

Many thought Manning would take the world by storm in his first year as a starter in 2025 after sitting two years. That included a lot of Heisman hype and potentially being the No. 1 overall pick in 2026.

But it seems like Manning will stick around and wait until the 2027 NFL Draft. Klatt said the best form of development for someone like Manning is more starts under his belt.

“We tiptoe around because of his last name,” Klatt said on The Herd. “But even those guys would probably appreciate honesty. Arch was dreadful early in the year, and he’s gotten better in the last couple of weeks. Arch is a decent to average college football quarterback early in his career, and he’s going to need at least 20 more starts to be even remotely ready for the National Football League … As far as number of starts, he’s early in his career. You know, again, this position, the position of quarterback, there is no way you can replicate it. So I don’t care if it’s your third year in college or if it’s your first year in college, the only thing that matters is number of games started.” 

Manning has certainly improved in recent weeks. His stat line is pretty solid at this point and all of a sudden, Manning and Texas is back in the playoff picture.

“Can you be a little more comfortable? Sure, I guess. But you can’t replicate the position anywhere other than on the field, live in games,” Klatt said. “And so as he’s starting to develop, as he’s starting to start more games, you’re starting to see him get a little bit better. Now we all thought he was going to come out and be gangbusters and be Trevor Lawrence right away, or Bear Bachmeier, the quarterback at BYU who’s 8-0 right now as a true freshman. And it didn’t happen. It didn’t happen. But here’s what, here’s what this position is all about: reps and experience. 

“If you take a look at since the turn of the century, the quarterbacks that have actually won Super Bowls, so you take a look at the list of guys that have actually won Super Bowls. And I think we’ve talked about this on the show … The average college career of all the guys that have won Super Bowls is around 30 to 34 starts in college football. You have to have a deep level of experience before you get to the NFL … Everyone, fans out there, just let Arch play a couple of years. Okay. Again, he is 20 starts away from being remotely close to an NFL level.”

This season, Manning has 2,123 yards, 18 touchdowns, six interceptions and a 62.7% completion percentage. Manning also has 203 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns.