Josh Pate sets realistic expectations for Arch Manning in 2025

Less than a week out now from his debut as a full-time starter, the hype is reaching an all-time high around Texas QB Arch Manning. Josh Pate, though, is trying to be more realistic about his own expectations for the long-awaited quarterback for the Longhorns.

Appearing last week on ‘Bussin’ With The Boys’, Pate discussed his thoughts on Manning and, in turn, began by asking what Taylor Lewan and Will Compton thought of him, as they said things like “great”, a “Heisman candidate”, and a “possible national champion” this season. He agreed with some of those, but is also holding off to an extent as he knows how much is already being put on Manning to have to live up to, and through none of his own doing.

“I think he’s going to be a fringe Heisman candidate. He’s going to be pretty good to really good quarterback,” Pate determined.

“I stop short of the whole, hyping him up to be elite, hyping him up to be the Heisman favorite. Only because, people do that all the time to college players. And then it gets to December and, let’s say I think Arch is the best quarterback in the country, I pick him to win the Heisman. He’s the fourth-best quarterback in the country this year? What happens in sports media land is no one looks at that kid in December and says, ‘Well, he played the way he was going to play. I’m the dude who screwed up. I’m the dude who overhyped him’. No one does that. No one ever looks in the mirror. They look at the kid and they say, ‘You were a bust,'” explained Pate. “But Arch Manning hasn’t set an expectation for himself, Arch Manning hasn’t made a prediction on himself. People who write for a living or talk for a living have.”

There has, with that last name of his, been anticipation for Arch’s arrival since he came out of high school as the top recruit in his class. Now, after two seasons sitting as the backup behind Quinn Ewers, Manning is coming into this season as maybe the biggest story in college football, expected by many to be one of the best quarterbacks in the sport for a title contender, both in conference and nationally, in the Longhorns.

Still, Pate wants to wait and see what Manning’s ceiling is considering he already feels good about where his floor is set on The 40 Acres. That’s with there being a lot for him to deal with this fall, from all the attention and pressure on top of what he’ll be facing over the course of Texas’ season.

“The way I do it for all these new starters is, I assume that dude? There’s a very high floor for him. But, my expectation for him is I think you’re going to be pretty to really good. Anything above and beyond that is just gravy for me,” said Pate. “You’re playing for Texas. You shouldn’t have to be an elite quarterback to win at Texas. If you are? They’ll remember you for a long time and you could have an iconic season loading, all that.”

“I think there’ll be inconsistencies. He’s human. There’s going to be a game, randomly, where he throws two picks before halftime and people are going to say, ‘Hmm, Sark, do you have to maybe think about making a change?’. No, you don’t make a change in the third quarter!” Pate continued. “This is real life. He’s got to go to Columbus, Gainesville, and Athens before they even play OU in Dallas, I think. Like, his four toughest games are away from Austin. That stuff is not easy.”

Regardless of how he plays, Manning is a name we’re sure to hear a lot more of this season. However, because of that, Pate is just trying to set what he sees as a more reasonable standard for him to start off with.

“I think he’s going to be pretty good to really good,” said Pate.