Mel Kiper makes definitive statement on Arch Manning after Week 2 for Texas

Coming into this season, Texas QB Arch Manning was thought more and more to be a prospect in the 2027 NFL Draft than in 2026. Now, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. thinks that wait might be best for him anyway based on what we’ve seen from him through two games with the Longhorns.

In an article regarding the 2026 NFL Draft at ESPN, Kiper wrote a few lines regarding the latest surrounding Manning coming into the NFL. He says he isn’t placing his name in any of his mocks or projections for next spring because, as of now, he thinks what’s best for him is to play that additional year of college football.

“Jordan touched on this, but I still think Manning goes back to school. He needs to become a great college quarterback before he can become a great NFL quarterback, and he hasn’t gotten there yet. The potential is here, for sure. But one full year as a CFB starter isn’t going to be enough to reach that next level before jumping to the pros,” wrote Kiper. “I wouldn’t put him on mock drafts or even rankings right now.”

That came after a blurb earlier in the piece on him from ESPN’s Jordan Reid. He also noted where Manning currently looks to be in his development, especially in some of the mechanics he has put on display, with Reid also not expecting him to be available as a draft pick for another year until 2027.

“He is very much still in the early stages of his first year as a starter. Where Manning has been the most disappointing is his mechanics. His body hasn’t been in sync with his throwing motion, causing him inaccuracy on what should be routine throws. To really hit the next level, he needs to iron that out,” Reid wrote. “As I’ve said since the summer, I still believe the earliest we’ll see Manning in the NFL is 2027.”

Manning has been decent through two games for Texas, as he struggled in their opening loss at Ohio State before coming back and obviously having a better performance in game two during a win over San José State. In total, Manning is now 36-60 (60%) for 465 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions, while rushing for 61 yards and a score. He was then 19-30 (63.3%) for 295 yards, four touchdowns, and a pick, as he also had a 20-yard rushing score, in the win over the Spartans on Saturday.

Still, while the production improved from game one to game two, Manning sees the biggest early critiques of him being more about how he has looked, whether mechanically or how comfortable he has been despite two years of development as their backup. Some of that was to be expected in his first true collegiate action but, due to the level of preseason hype around him, that has caused a lot of early concern about him as a player right now, let alone as an eventual prospect in the NFL Draft.

Manning still has a lot to learn with ten games left to play just in this season. However, regardless of how he plays the rest of the way, experts like Kiper and Reid are shifting their focus for him in the draft process from 2026 to 2027, which may already be the plan when it comes to the Longhorns’ QB1.