Mel Kiper makes prediction on Arch Manning's 2026 NFL Draft status

All eyes are on Arch Manning entering the 2024 season, and things couldn’t start off with a more challenging opponent. Up first is Ohio State.

NFL Draft analysts expect to see a lot in that contest, though there will be plenty of other chances to evaluate Manning this offseason. But will Manning even be a 2026 NFL Draft prospect?

That’s been up for serious debate this summer, after comments from Archie Manning and a bit of a back and forth from Arch Manning himself. To one notable ESPN NFL Draft analyst, Manning probably should stay in school for the 2026 season.

“I mentioned Mitchell Trubisky, Trey Lance, Mark Sanchez, Anthony Richardson — you want a quarterback to have those 24-plus starts,” Mel Kiper said on Get Up on Thursday morning. “He’s not going to get to that number. So I don’t expect him to be in this draft. That’s not the Manning way.”

For all the hype and the hoopla, Arch Manning has yet to show much in actual games. He’s been plenty competent in relief of Quinn Ewers the last couple years, but it’s been limited action.

Manning has thrown for 969 yards and nine touchdowns, against just two interceptions. He’s also run for 108 yards and four scores.

So, how much will the Ohio State game start to set the narrative about Arch Manning as a potential 2026 NFL Draft prospect? Well, assuming that’s the route Manning takes, it’ll offer insight… but that’s probably it.

“It’s not all about this game in terms of the evaluation process. He’s still a young quarterback,” Kiper said. “This is maybe his third start, first against a big-time opponent, who happens to be the defending national champions, who have a ton of pride. It’s on their field at high noon, with Matt Patricia as the new defensive coordinator taking over for Jim Knowles, who’s now at Penn State.

“And people say, ‘Well, they lost eight starters, this defense is not very good.’ Kenyatta Jackson Jr. is a great defensive end. Sonny Styles is a heck of a linebacker. Caleb Downs is a great safety and Jermaine Matthews the lockdown corner. There is talent galore for Matt Patricia to work with at Ohio State this year.”

In other words, it’s expected to be tough on Arch Manning this weekend. That gives him room to exceed expectations. But it also provides a potential platform for growth over the next year or two. It’s a starting point in what figures to be an intensely scrutinized college career.