Texas Longhorns Football: Phil Steele 2025 Forecast

Phil Steele gave his 2025 forecast for the Texas Longhorns this upcoming college football season and the veteran writer expects big things. Year five of the Steve Sarkisian era in Austin has the chance to be special, as the Longhorns have increased their win total in every season since he took over in 2021.

With perennial preseason Heisman favorite Arch Manning at quarterback and the return of absolute game wreckers on the defensive side such as EDGE Colin Simmons, linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and safety Michael Taaffe, Texas seems poised to be right in the mix to win its first National Championship since 2005.

“In Steve Sarkisian‘s first year, Texas opened 4-1 but lost six in a row for the first time since 1956 and were 5-7! In ’22 the Horns were my #3 Most Improved Team in the country,” Steele wrote. “Texas finished 8-5 with all five losses by seven or less. A lot of signs were pointing up in ’23 as they had three Net Close Losses, and were +72 mpg in B12 play in ’22. All nine sets of my power ratings called for double digit wins (one has 12-0) and Texas actually ranked #1 or tied for #1 in all 9 of my Big 12 position categories in the preseason. They were my pick to win the Big 12 and my #3 Surprise team (non top 10 team to make the playoff)! Texas lost in the last seconds to Oklahoma but beat [Alabama] on the road and walloped [Oklahoma State] in the Big 12 title game. They made the playoff but lost to Washington by 7.”

Steele continues to compliment the Longhorns

“Last year Texas was the only ’23 CFP team with a returning HC! They faced the 2nd best SEC schedule with just 3 true SEC road games and they avoided Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri. Texas was mostly dominant in 2024 with the only blemish a home loss to Georgia. They lost the SEC title game in OT but won two playoff games. Down 21-14 they had 1&G vs [Ohio State] but a fumble return for a TD resulted in a 14 point loss. This year Arch Manning takes over at QB but they do lose 12 NFL draft picks. Texas has only 3 true SEC home games and does have to face both [Ohio State] and Georgia on the road.”

Along with the big-time defensive returners, running backs Tre Wisner, Jerrick Gibson and Cedric Baxter all return in the backfield with star receiver Ryan Wingo out wide. On both sides of the ball, the ‘Horns are destined to be one of the most exciting teams to watch in all of college football.

“The Horns are my #3 in my Power Poll and even if they lose a game or two in the regular season, Ohio St showed last year that the most talented team can prevail in the playoffs. The biggest question is a young OLine. Texas has improved each year and went from making the playoffs to winning two games and they are poised to take that next step again in 2025.”

Texas will open the season at Ohio State in a mega-matchup on August 30th. Its first conference game takes place against Florida on October 4th.