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Why history says Texas, Arch Manning will not meet expectations in 2025

Grant Grubbs Profile Pictureby: Grant Grubbs08/14/25grant_grubbs_
Texas Steve Sarkisian, Arch Manning
(Will Gallagher | Inside Texas)

History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes. During an appearance on The Paul Finebaum Show on Thursday, On3’s Brett McMurphy explained why history is working against Texas and quarterback Arch Manning this year.

“It ain’t going to be Texas,” McMurphy said of his national championship pick. “Nineteen of the last 21 years, the preseason No. 1 team has not won the national title. Congrats, Texas, you’re the No. 1 preseason team. So, can they stop that streak, or will that continue?

“And I know you’re big on Texas and big on Arch Manning, but history says Texas won’t win the national title and Arch won’t win the Heisman because the past 10 preseason Heisman Trophy favorites did not win the Heisman.”

On Monday, the first AP Top 25 rankings were released and the Longhorns were No. 1. It’s the first time in program history that Texas has been ranked the preseason top team in the country.

While it’s a massive compliment from AP Poll voters, it’s not necessarily a good omen for the Longhorns. Alabama’s 2017 team was the last preseason No. 1 to win the national championship. Of course, Texas fans could also spin this concerning pattern into the opinion that a preseason No. 1 is due to win it all.

Alas, they’d need to have the same perspective for Arch Manning to win the Heisman. Manning is the preseason favorite to take home the most coveted individual award in college football despite this season being his first as Texas’ full-time starter.

Though McMurphy isn’t willing to bet on Texas adding a surplus of hardware to its storied history this year, the Longhorns and Manning haven’t received so much preseason hype by accident. Texas has reached the College Football Playoff semifinals the past two seasons and had an excellent offseason.

The Longhorns reeled in the No. 17 class in On3’s 2025 Team Transfer Portal Rankings. Moreover, Manning has reportedly looked the part of a Heisman contender in training camp, after shining in his two starts last season.

Arch Manning and Co. won’t have to wait much longer to attempt to prove McMurphy wrong. On Aug. 30, Texas will square off against reigning national champion Ohio State in its season-opener at noon ET. The game will air live on FOX.