2023 Big-12 Power Rankings: Texas at the top of a complicated and intriguing conference in transition
We’re a little more than a month away from the official start of the 2023 college football season. Rejoice! With various media days wrapping up around the country, it’s time to release our updated preseason 2023 Power Rankings for each P5 conference just before the start of fall camp. We kickstarted the series with the SEC, and released the latest Big Ten and ACC preseason Power Rankings last week.
We continued the rankings by featuring the Pac-12 on Monday and finish the series with the Big 12 today. The league will look a whole lot differently in 2024 — and perhaps dramatically so, but let’s examine the 2023 field, first.
In the final year of Texas and Oklahoma in the conference, the Longhorns are the preseason favorites but Kansas State, last year’s champ, OU, Texas Tech and others are all vying for supremacy in a league that should be highly competitive all fall. Here are my 2023 Big 12 Preseason Power Rankings:
1. Texas
Is Texas truly back? The Longhorns are the preseason Big 12 favorite for the first time since 2009. They return the second-most starters in the league, led by quarterback Quinn Ewers and All-American linebacker Jaylen Ford.
A young offensive line should be better, and the tight end and receiver rooms are loaded. But can Steve Sarkisian finally win 10 games for the first time in 10 years as a head coach? Can the Longhorns avoid squandering second-half leads? Texas should win the Big 12 in its final season but will it?
2. Kansas State
The reigning conference champs could absolutely go back-to-back in 2023, as the Wildcats return veteran quarterback Will Howard, a mauling OL and six starters on defense.
Kansas State must overcome some notable attrition to the NFL — namely do-everything-tailback Deuce Vaughn (1,500 rushing yards, 43 receptions) and 1st Round pass rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah (team-high 8.5 sacks) — but FSU transfer Treshaun Ward should be a capable replacement at tailback and there’s hope Mississippi State transfer end Jevon Banks can provide some immediate pass rush help. The Wildcats will also feature a retooled secondary after losing all four starters, including corner JuJu Brents, who had four picks in 2022. Chris Klieman is the best coach in the conference, and although Kansas State must play at Texas this fall, this is a program built for sustained success.
3. Oklahoma
Brent Venables is just entering his second season in Norman, but the pressure cooker is turned up on Sooners’ head coach after last year’s 6-7 record and the program’s impending move to the SEC. Oklahoma returns quarterback Dillion Gabriel, and has a great insurance option in 5-star freshman Jackson Arnold. But will the OL be better? Is a young group of receivers ready to step up?
In all likelihood, the Sooners should be fine offensively, so their success this fall hinges on whether Venables has fixed a defense that was terrible in 2022. OU returns seven starters, and the staff believes the group has a better understanding of scheme and expectations. The Sooners also landed several potential impact pieces from the transfer portal, headlined by Indiana Freshman All-American ‘Cheetah’ Dasan McCullough. Five-star safety signee Peyton Bowen is expected to contribute early, too. With a schedule that doesn’t include Kansas State or Texas Tech, anything less than nine wins would be a disappointment.
4. Texas Tech
Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders’ team has continued to pick up momentum throughout the offseason, garnering as many first-place votes to win the Big 12 as Oklahoma (four). Texas Tech was a surprising 8-5 last season and McGuire said back in the spring that this year’s team would beat the 2022 squad by 14 points.
Texas Tech hopes to have a full season from Tyler Shough at quarterback and they return a strong set of playmakers, led by sophomore wideout Jerand Bradley and blazing transfer Drae McCray. Despite losing 1st Round pass rusher Tyree Wilson to the NFL Draft, the Red Raiders’ defense has a ton of experience (10 potential senior starters) and added transfers Steve Linton, the Syracuse pass rusher who projects to replace Wilson off the edge, as well as San Diego State safety CJ Baskerville. If TTU gets improved OL play and can pull off an upset or two, it could find its way into the title game.
5. TCU
Pretty much every name you remember off of last year’s storybook Horned Frogs’ team is in the NFL: Heisman Trophy runner-up quarterback Max Duggan, receiver Quentin Johnston, running back Kendre Miller, linebacker Dee Winters and cornerback Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson. TCU also lost wunderkind OC Garrett Riley to Clemson. And yet, Sonny Dykes is determined to prove that 2022 was not a one-hit wonder year in Dallas.
Kendal Briles steps in as the new offensive coordinator, and Chandler Morris, who was actually TCU’s 2022 starter before getting hurt early last season, is set to be QB1. The Horned Frogs also hit the portal hard, adding multiple former blue-chippers from Alabama including wideout JoJo Earle, as well as swiping Oklahoma State receiver John Paul Richardson and hybrid slot/tight end Jack Bech from LSU.
6. Baylor
For the Bears to resemble anything close to their 2021 Big 12 Championship potential they must get improved QB play from veteran Blake Shapen. They brought in some competition in former 4-star recruit Sawyer Robertson from Mississippi State, who could provide some dual-threat abilities in Jeff Grimes’ offense.
Dave Aranda went portal-heavy this offseason, adding multiple pieces on both sides of the football. Baylor swiped Ok. State starting tailback Dominic Richardson and signed a pair of BYU transfers to shore up an OL that must replace three starters. Defensively, Aranda made a DC change, bringing in Matt Powledge over from Oregon to kickstart a unit that was a Top 10 group two seasons ago. The Bears have modest expectations in 2023, but if the transfers click, they could be a Top 5 team in the league.
7. UCF
Among the four Big 12 newcomers, UCF is the most well-equipped to compete now and in the near future. Gus Malzahn has a roster that should at least be competitive in its transition to the Power 5, aided by the return of speedy dual-threat quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. The Knights have a solid set of receivers in Javon Baker & Co., and the run game could be even more explosive with upgrades at OL (four possible starters from the portal) and the addition of former 5-star tailback Demarkcus Bowman, who may have finally found a home after stops at Clemson and Florida.
The Knights have some issues to shore up defensively (namely: can they stop the run better?), but Georgia linebacker Rian Davis and Clemson corner Fred Davis were two solid transfer additions and top pass rusher Tre’Mon Morris-Brash (13.5 TFLs, 6.0 sacks) is back.
8. Kansas Jayhawks
Lance Leipold has revived a destitute Jayhawks’ program, and there’s a realistic possibility for Kansas to make it to a bowl game in back-to-back seasons. KU returns more production than any team in the Big 12 (10 starters back on offense including preseason Offensive Player of the Year quarterback Jalon Daniels and 1,000-yard rusher Devin Neal). The Jayhawks have ample room for improvement off a defense that allowed a league-high 35.5 points per game in 2022, and Kansas was poor on special teams, too.
The Jayhawks’ defense will feature a whole new starting DL — which might not be a bad thing after the group ranked last in the Big 12 in rushing (209.2 yards per game), touchdowns (37) and yards per carry (4.8). The schedule is trickier than it was last season, but Leipold should be able to coach this team to six wins again.
9. Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy hasn’t suffered a losing season in Stillwater since Year 1 coaching at his alma mater, and while I don’t foresee the Pokes missing a bowl game in 2023, it’s at least possible after an offseason marred by roster and staff turnover. The Cowboys saw 10 starters enter the portal, including veteran quarterback Spencer Sanders (Ole Miss), All Big-12 linebacker Mason Cobb (USC), wideout Bryson Green (Wisconsin), cornerback Thomas Harper (Notre Dame), pass rusher Trace Ford (Oklahoma), RB Richardson (Baylor), and Paul Richardson (TCU).
Oklahoma State exited the spring with an ongoing QB battle but Michigan transfer Alan Bowman projects as the Cowboys’ starter. Gundy has never been shy about dipping into the lower levels for assistants, and while Bryan Nardo was an intriguing offsesaon hire defensively, the former Division II DC inherits a unit with just two returning starters that is transitioning to a 3-3-5 scheme.
10. BYU
The Cougars are a member of a conference for the first time in a dozen years, but unlike UCF, Houston or Cincy, they’re used to playing plenty of Power 5 schools each season. Kalani Sitake used the transfer portal to fill major holes at quarterback (in steps former USC and Pitt starter Kedon Slovis), tailback (UNLV transfer Aidan Robbins) and offensive line (five additions, many of whom project as starters). BYU returns more experience defensively (seven starters back), but Sitake shook up a unit that struggled a year ago (29.1 points per game allowed) and will face stiffer competition this fall by bringing in former Weber State head coach Jay Hill as DC.
Hill brought FCS All-American defensive back Eddie Heckard with him to Provo. BYU won’t be immediately physically overmatched joining the Big 12, and the Cougars should be good enough offensively to hang around in most games. Can they get enough stops to make a bowl game is the question?
11. Iowa State
The Cyclones enter 2023 in an odd spot. Matt Campbell has raised the program’s potential, but expectations are low following last season’s 4-8 record and possible looming suspensions to key players due to an ongoing gambling investigation amid the athletics department. Iowa State returns lots of experience off of an offense that was dreadful last season (20.2 points per game, 3.3 yards per carry and -7 turnover margin), with eight starters back including quarterback Hunter Dekkers. With the personnel largely the same outside of the departure of star receiver Xavier Hutchinson, Campbell overhauled the offensive staff by hiring a new OC (Nathan Scheelhaase) and OL coach (Ryan Clanton).
Iowa State was really good defensively last season (just 20 points per game allowed, best in the Big 12), but should be one of the stiffer units in the league again this fall. Depending on what happens with the potential suspensions, if Iowa State is at full strength, the Cyclones’ ability to make a bowl game will depend on if they can start winning close games (10 straight losses in one-score affairs).
12. Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield takes over a Cincy program in major transition just two years removed from crashing the College Football Playoff party. Just two starters are back on an offense that will be led by former Florida and Arizona State quarterback Emory Jones. Satterfield was aggressive in attacking the portal after around 25 players transferred out of Cincy this offseason, including several former Bearcat standouts joining Luke Fickell at Wisconsin.
The Bearcats have been led by their defense in recent seasons, and they return six starters including notable contributors Jowon Briggs and Dontay Corleone. They also grabbed former Louisville linebacker Dorian Jones and All-Mountain West defensive end Daniel Grzesiak from Nevada.
13. West Virginia
I agree with Neal Brown: The Mountaineers are not the worst team in the Big 12 in 2023. But they’re still looking at a rough fall, with Brown, who has just one winning season in four years in Morgantown and new AD eying a potential coaching change, likely to be on the sidelines elsewhere in 2024. The Mountaineers return a possible stud at tailback in sophomore CJ Donaldson, but outside of the offensive line, the rest of the unit has concerns. WVU opens fall camp with a quarterback battle between Garrett Greene and Nicco Marchiol, two guys who saw limited snaps in 2022.
Defensively, Brown is confident WVU has solved its secondary issues through the portal, but it’s a roster (that was already thin on high-end talent) that lost more than a dozen key contributors to transfers. The schedule is daunting, with 11 Power 5 games — including non-conference matchups versus Penn State and Pitt in early September.
14. Houston
Dana Holgorsen bolted the Big 12 five years ago, and now he finds himself back in the conference — but for how long? Houston went a disappointing 8-5 last season, and pressure is mounting for Holgorsen to deliver the Cougars double-digit win seasons — and that is very difficult after an offseason chalked with change and Year 1 in a Power 5 league.
Houston lost its entire starting OL to the portal, OC Shannon Dawson is now at Miami and longtime QB-WR duo Clayton Tune and Nathaniel Dell are now in the NFL. Former Texas Tech starter Donovan Smith steps in at quarterback, and while Holgorsen will find a way to score points, can the Cougars stop anybody?
Doug Belk is seen as a rising star but his unit allowed 33 points per game last fall (up from 20.4 the season before) and it returns just four starters.