2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch enters final stages as regular season nears end

The NCAA Tournament bubble has shifted over the course of the college basketball season, with just days left until postseason play across the country. Headlining the biggest movers across the bubble, there are many teams attempting to raise their stock before sweating out the Selection Sunday reveal.

Every team’s position has started to solidify. As the season winds down, there are many teams safely in the field, while others hover too close to a bubble conversation. Meanwhile, many bubble teams are one big week from landing a spot in the NCAA Tournament field.

For now, teams in the conversation for a 9-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 10-seed or 11-seed lines are sweating out the final days. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do, in a shrinking group.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2026 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams that have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Ohio State (34) – Stock Up

Ohio State has done wonders for its NCAA Tournament resume over the past week, going from a controversial debate over the lack of Q1 wins to a team with a big win over Purdue. The Buckeyes can now continue to build a cushion, as the analytics still value their record.

The Buckeyes are in the final stretch of the regular season, with games left against Penn State and Indiana, which could keep them out of the Last Four In conversation entering the Big Ten Tournament. There, they will only raise their stock.

TCU (42) – Stock Up

TCU continued to surge up the bubble watch conversation and into the Last Four In with a four-game win streak, which now includes a road victory over Texas Tech. The solid position within the Big 12 standings further helps offset some bad non-conference losses still on the resume.

The Horned Frogs will finish the regular season in a must-watch bubble battle against Cincinnati, which has also surged into the mix for one of the final spots in March Madness. The winner will be in a position to capitalize on the conference tournament.

New Mexico (44) – Stock Up

New Mexico picked up a critical head-to-head win over SDSU over the weekend, putting it in position to be the second Mountain West team considered for the field. The Lobos also boast one of the best records among bubble candidates, with two Q1 wins also on the resume.

The Lobos will finish the regular season against a pair of top Mountain West opponents, with Colorado State and Utah State on deck. The performance there will determine how deep into the conference tournament they must go to earn a bid.

SDSU (47) – Stock Down

SDSU remains on the bubble, but taking four losses in the past five games will make its path to the NCAA Tournament very difficult, especially after its latest loss against Boise State comes outside of the contenders. It leaves plenty of work to do as the conference tournament looms.

Before the Mountain West Tournament, the Aztecs will have to face UNLV with a chance to end their skid of bad results. It is a must-win as they continue to drift the wrong way and leave real work to do in postseason play to land on the right side.

Indiana (40) – Stock Down

Indiana chose a bad point in the season to hit a three-game losing streak, with the middle game against Northwestern hurting its bubble resume. The Hoosiers have now fallen onto the cutline, where a low WAB provides them shaky ground against other candidates.

To close the season, the Hoosiers will face Minnesota and Ohio State. The first is a must-win for the resume, while the second could provide an important head-to-head result against another team near the bubble before conference tournament action.

SMU (37) – Stock Down

SMU suffered consecutive losses against California and Stanford on a West Coast road trip, allowing it to slide much closer to the bubble than planned. The Mustangs are currently safe, but as the threat of bid stealers arrives, so does concern over the margin.

The Mustangs will face Miami and Florida State to close out the regular season, with a pair of chances to create separation on the bubble and enter the category of safe teams entering conference tournament action. However, losses would place them in a must-win situation early next week.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Duke (1), Clemson (35), Louisville (15), Miami (31), NC State (30), North Carolina (24), SMU (37), Virginia (13)
On the bubble: California (63), Virginia Tech (55)
More to do: Stanford (65)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (3), BYU (23), Houston (7), Iowa State (10), Kansas (18), Texas Tech (14)
On the bubble: Cincinnati (45), TCU (42), UCF (48)
More to do: Baylor (51)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (5), Iowa (26), Michigan (2), Michigan State (11), Nebraska (12), Purdue (9), UCLA (36), Wisconsin (32)
On the bubble: Indiana (40), Ohio State (34), USC (63)
More to do: N/A

SEC
In the field: Alabama (17), Arkansas (20), Florida (4), Georgia (29), Kentucky (27), Tennessee (19), Texas (38), Vanderbilt (16)
On the bubble: Auburn (39), Missouri (59), Texas A&M (43)
More to do: Oklahoma (57)

Big East
In the field: St. John’s (22), UConn (8), Villanova (33)
On the bubble: Seton Hall (52)
More to do: N/A

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (6), St. Louis (23), St. Mary’s (21), Utah State (28)
On the bubble: Miami (OH) (53), New Mexico (44), Santa Clara (41), SDSU (47), VCU (46)
More to do: South Florida (49)