2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch features Big Ten rivals in opposite directions, more

The NCAA Tournament bubble took a big shift over the past week of results as upsets and parity continue to define the college basketball season. Headlining the biggest movers across the bubble, there are many teams attempting to stop downward momentum and reestablish their March Madness hopes.

Every team’s position at this point remains fluid. But as the season continues, there are some teams safely in the field, while others hover too close to a bubble conversation. Meanwhile, many bubble teams are one big week from feeling good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2026 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams that have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Missouri (57) – Stock Up

Missouri has continued to climb its way into the bubble conversation throughout the SEC schedule, and it got a big boost on Tuesday when it beat Tennessee. While the Tigers fell short in a weekend matchup against Arkansas, they recently beat Vanderbilt as well.

The Tigers have three games left in the regular season, with Mississippi State and Oklahoma before a rematch against Arkansas. They have gotten their resume into line with those above the NCAA Tournament cutline, but still see some analytic models lag behind.

UCLA (39) – Stock Up

UCLA was a struggling team headed in the wrong direction just a few weeks ago, but has turned things around in the Big Ten with some big wins over Illinois and USC. As the Bruins avoid taking bad losses during the conference schedule, the wins continue to stack up in their favor.

For the Bruins to lock themselves into the NCAA Tournament field, they will still need a strong finish to the regular season and conference tournament. Minnesota, Nebraska and a rematch against USC are left on the schedule.

UCF (43) – Stock Up

UCF has been a rollercoaster team in the bubble watch all season long, but a big win over BYU brings its win streak to three as it looks to lock itself into the March Madness conversation. The marquee win should add to the Knights’ resume and take them closer to exiting the bubble altogether.

To close the season, the Knights will face Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia. After a favorable close, they could head into the Big 12 tournament with little concern about where they stand with the Selection Committee.

Clemson (38) – Stock Down

Clemson seemed like a solid NCAA Tournament contender for most of the season, even putting up strong results early in the ACC schedule. However, a four-game losing streak leaves this team searching for answers. While the Tigers remain on the right side of things with little time left in the season, losses against Virginia Tech and Florida State have sent them down the seed line quickly.

The Tigers will not pick up any easy wins soon, either, with Louisville and North Carolina up next on the schedule. They will then face Georgia Tech to close the regular season before preparing to compete in the ACC Tournament.

SDSU (46) – Stock Down

San Diego State has suffered back-to-back losses in the Mountain West, dropping it below the cutline for the NCAA Tournament with limited opportunities left to rebound. The Aztecs fell against Grand Canyon first, then Colorado State, to complicate their case against many other bubble candidates.

The Aztecs have made late surges into the NCAA Tournament before, and the Mountain West Tournament will ultimately provide hope until the end. But first, they will face top teams Utah State and New Mexico to close the regular season.

USC (63) – Stock Down

USC is currently on a four-game losing streak, which continued on Tuesday against crosstown rival UCLA. While this was not the worst loss of the bunch, it builds on a loss against Oregon to push the Trojans down the board of bubble contenders and make the path back difficult.

The Trojans need a quick turnaround to get back in the March Madness picture, but they will face Nebraska next. They then play Washington and get a rematch against UCLA before the Big Ten Tournament provides another key opportunity.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Duke (1), Louisville (16), Miami (34), NC State (28), North Carolina (25), SMU (30), Virginia (13)
On the bubble: Clemson (38), Virginia Tech (50)
More to do: California (59)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (3), BYU (21), Houston (9), Iowa State (8), Kansas (14), Texas Tech (15)
On the bubble: TCU (45), UCF (43)
More to do: Baylor (49), Cincinnati (51), West Virginia (66)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (4), Iowa (27), Michigan (2), Michigan State (12), Nebraska (11), Purdue (6), Wisconsin (32)
On the bubble: Indiana (40), Ohio State (35), UCLA (39), USC (63)
More to do: N/A

SEC
In the field: Alabama (19), Arkansas (18), Florida (7), Kentucky (29), Tennessee (20), Vanderbilt (17)
On the bubble: Auburn (36), Georgia (33), Missouri (57), Texas (37), Texas A&M (42)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: St. John’s (22), UConn (10), Villanova (31)
On the bubble: Seton Hall (55)
More to do: N/A

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (5), St. Louis (24), St. Mary’s (26), Utah State (23)
On the bubble: Miami (OH) (48), New Mexico (44), Santa Clara (41), SDSU (46), VCU (47)
More to do: South Florida (52)