2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch sees SEC teams make big moves up, down

The NCAA Tournament bubble makes another shift with the past week of results now in the book and part of the data available for evaluation. Headlining the biggest movers across the bubble, there are SEC programs going in opposite directions, with momentum carrying them.

Every team’s position at this point remains fluid, but as the season continues, there are some teams safely in the field, while others hover too close to a bubble conversation. Meanwhile, many bubble teams are one big week from feeling good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2026 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams that have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Texas (36) – Stock Up

Texas scratched its way into the bubble conversation in January before a five-game win streak has propelled them into a much more comfortable spot. Still not fully clear, they hold wins over Oklahoma, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU in that stretch.

While the Longhorns did benefit from one of the easiest stretches in SEC play, they have made enough ground to take them into a positive position before facing Georgia and Florida over the next week.

Cincinnati (62) – Stock Up

After looking dead in the water just weeks ago, Cincinnati has climbed back above the .500 mark with three straight wins in Big 12 play. There is plenty more work to do if they want to reach the right side of the bubble, but results against UCF, Kansas State and Utah have provided a glimpse of hope among the teams with more to do.

The Bearcats have a serious opportunity to become a true bubble team this weekend, facing Kansas on a full week of rest. After that, another resume-building opportunity is on the schedule against Texas Tech. There is also danger, with the chance to dip back to a .500 record in that span.

VCU (45) – Stock Up

VCU continues to hover around the NCAA Tournament conversation, despite not claiming the predicted Atlantic 10 automatic bid. The Rams are now on a 10-game win streak in the conference.

The Rams look to continue their climb, with a true resume-building opportunity ahead against St. Louis — which looks the part of an at-large team in the A-10. After that, they will have just three games left in the regular season.

Auburn (32) – Stock Down

The past few weeks have been difficult for Auburn, slowly sliding down the seed lines of bracketology to the point they now find themselves on the cusp of a bubble conversation. A four-game losing streak featuring results against Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas has the Tigers desperate for a win to turn back in the right direction.

The Tigers will get some of their best chances at finding a winning form to end February, starting with a game against Mississippi State. They will also play Kentucky over the weekend, before closing the month with Oklahoma and Ole Miss.

Baylor (51) – Stock Down

Baylor has been a struggling team for much of the year, relying on the lingering analytics numbers to hold up a record that now drops to .500 overall. A loss against Kansas State further unravels the case.

The Bears must now rebound with big wins in the Big 12 to have a chance at the NCAA Tournament, with Arizona State up next. After that, a game against Arizona provides the best chance at a resume-builder.

Texas A&M (43) – Stock Down

Just weeks ago, Texas A&M sat at the top of the SEC standings thanks to a well-timed winning streak and a favorable start to conference play. Now, they are in need of momentum, sitting on four straight losses against Alabama, Florida, Missouri and Vanderbilt.

The Aggies get their chance to hit reset and get back in the win column during the midweek slate against Ole Miss. After that, they face another important matchup for the resume against Oklahoma.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Clemson (31), Duke (2), Louisville (15), NC State (25), North Carolina (28), SMU (33), Virginia (18)
On the bubble: Miami (37), Virginia Tech (56)
More to do: California (61)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (3), BYU (20), Houston (6), Iowa State (5), Kansas (14), Texas Tech (16)
On the bubble: TCU (48), UCF (46), West Virginia (54)
More to do: Baylor (51), Cincinnati (62)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (4), Indiana (34), Iowa (26), Michigan (1), Michigan State (12), Nebraska (11), Purdue (8), Wisconsin (35)
On the bubble: Ohio State (38), UCLA (41), USC (47)
More to do: Washington (52)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (19), Arkansas (17), Florida (9), Kentucky (30), Tennessee (2`), Vanderbilt (13)
On the bubble: Auburn (32), Georgia (39), Missouri (65), Texas (36), Texas A&M (43)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: St. John’s (24), UConn (10), Villanova (29)
On the bubble: Seton Hall (50)
More to do: N/A

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (7), St. Louis (22), St. Mary’s (27), Utah State (23)
On the bubble: New Mexico (42), Santa Clara (40), SDSU (44), VCU (45)
More to do: Miami (OH) (49), Nevada (70), South Florida (58)