2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch takes new turn as teams look for breakthrough

The NCAA Tournament bubble continues to see small movements without big shifts on either side of the cutline. As the teams continue to search for big results that can elevate them into a new conversation, some have made more progress than others.

Every team’s position at this point is extremely fluid, with some teams safely in the field just one bad week away from a bubble conversation. Likewise, many bubble teams are one big week from feeling good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2026 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams that have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Miami (36) – Stock Up

Miami makes the quick leap from Stock Down to Stock Up this week, turning things around quickly with a pair of vital wins that could keep them on the right side of the bubble. The Hurricanes now feature wins over Boston College and North Carolina, with the latter fresh off a win vs. Duke.

The Hurricanes must continue capitalizing on opportunities in the ACC to maximize their seeding the rest of the way. They now prepare for games against NC State and Virginia Tech.

Indiana (31) – Stock Up

Indiana needed to bounce back from a loss to USC, and quickly did so over the past week. The Hoosiers got an overtime win over Wisconsin, a fellow Big Ten bubble contender, before taking care of business against Oregon.

The pair of wins has provided the Hoosiers with plenty of cushion from the bubble cutline, dragging them further up the board before a massive week. Upcoming games against Illinois and Purdue on the road give them a big chance to exit the bubble conversation altogether.

VCU (50) – Stock Up

VCU continues to hover around the NCAA Tournament conversation, despite not claiming the predicted Atlantic 10 automatic bid. The Rams have made the most of losses by the teams around them, and a blowout win over Dayton further built the case.

The Rams look to continue their climb, potentially helping the conference get two or more bids into the field, pending the results of the A-10 Tournament and St. Louis’ close to the season. The next two games on the slate for VCU are La Salle and Richmond.

UCF (44) – Stock Down

Just one week after featuring in the Stock Up portion of Bubble Watch, UCF has dropped into the Stock Down class with a pair of losses, which will put it back in the debate with other fringe teams. The first loss, which came against Houston, will do far less damage than the second against Cincinnati.

Up next for the Knights is a pair of games against Big 12 opponents they need to keep pace. West Virginia and TCU will both travel to Orlando for the matchups.

Seton Hall (53) – Stock Down

A rough week for Seton Hall sees the Pirates in the conversation of risers and fallers on the bubble once again, a common trend this season. This time, a pair of Big East losses against Villanova and Creighton has squandered resume-building chances and set them back in the quest to land on the right side of things.

The Pirates have moved up and down the board multiple times this season, but already below the cutline, it could become a critical week. They now prepare for matchups against Providence and Butler with a lot on the line.

New Mexico (45) – Stock Down

In a critical week for the Mountain West standings, New Mexico dropped a pair of games to others in the race for an NCAA Tournament spot. In two games at home, the Lobos lost to Utah State and Boise State, setting them back in the conference and the bubble conversation.

The Lobos still have time to build their NCAA Tournament resume thanks to a relatively strong group of teams around them. The path starts against Grand Canyon on the road before a home game against Air Force.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Clemson (30), Duke (3), Louisville (14), NC State (29), North Carolina (26), SMU (34), Virginia (17)
On the bubble: Miami (36), Virginia Tech (55)
More to do: California (57), Stanford (68)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (2), BYU (18), Houston (4), Iowa State (7), Kansas (13), Texas Tech (20)
On the bubble: Baylor (47), TCU (48), UCF (44)
More to do: Oklahoma State (67), West Virginia (60)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (5), Iowa (21), Michigan (1), Michigan State (11), Nebraska (12), Purdue (9)
On the bubble: Indiana (31), Ohio State (41), UCLA (39), USC (49), Wisconsin (37)
More to do: Washington (52)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (23), Arkansas (19), Auburn (32), Florida (10), Kentucky (27), Tennessee (22), Vanderbilt (15)
On the bubble: Georgia (35), Texas (38), Texas A&M (42)
More to do: Missouri (61)

Big East
In the field: St. John’s (25), UConn (8), Villanova (33)
On the bubble: Seton Hall (53)
More to do: N/A

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (6), St. Louis (16), St. Mary’s (28), Utah State (24)
On the bubble: New Mexico (45), Santa Clara (40), SDSU (43), Tulsa (46), VCU (50)
More to do: Boise State (54), Miami (OH) (51), Nevada (56)