2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Fresh Bracketology projections entering new year

Bracketology updates continue into the new year as the calendar turns and full-force conference play tips off across college basketball. It is time to look at which teams celebrate the new year in form and which need to execute a resolution to rise up the board.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the conference schedule hits full force across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Michigan, Arizona, UConn, Duke
Last four byes: Baylor, SMU, UCF, Miami
Last four in: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Butler, Virginia Tech
First four out: Creighton, Oklahoma, Boise State, Oklahoma State

First Four (Dayton)

16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
16 Vermont (AEC) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
11 Ohio State vs. 11 Seton Hall
11 Butler vs. 11 Virginia Tech

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Southern/Norfolk State
8 LSU vs. 9 NC State
San Diego
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 UC San Diego (Big West)
4 North Carolina vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Tampa
6 St. Mary’s vs. 11 Ohio State/Seton Hall
3 Alabama vs. 14 Troy (SBC)
Philadelphia
7 Virginia vs. 10 UCF
2 Purdue vs. 15 Quinnipiac (MAAC)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan has established itself as the No. 1 overall seed in Bracketology through the non-conference schedule, stringing together dominant results against high-major competition. The Wolverines have already started their conference slate as well, remaining undefeated in the Big Ten.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue remains on the 2-seed line for a third straight week, as much a result of strong performances around it as anything it did. The Boilermakers have a solid resume and will have plenty of opportunities to rise through Big Ten play.

South (Houston)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 UT Martin (OVC)
8 St. John’s vs. 9 UCLA
Oklahoma City
5 Nebraska vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Kansas vs. 13 Liberty (CUSA)
Greenville
6 Villanova vs. 11 Miami
3 Vanderbilt (SEC) vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Portland
7 Kentucky vs. 10 St. Louis (A10)
2 BYU vs. 15 Wright State (Horizon)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains a steady presence near the top of every bracketology model and others, from the polls to the computers. After their non-conference resume, the Blue Devils continue to look the part of a 1-seed team.

2-seed BYU

BYU breaks onto the 2-seed line after floating around the bubble of this spot for most of the non-conference schedule. The Cougars have built their resume up entering Big 12 play with a chance to not only hold onto a top seed but continue the upward trajectory.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Vermont/LIU
8 Georgia vs. 9 USC
Buffalo
5 Tennessee vs. 12 Akron (MAC)
4 Illinois vs. 13 Hofstra (CAA)
Philadelphia
6 Florida vs. 11 Butler/Virginia Tech
3 Michigan State vs. 14 St. Thomas (Summit)
Portland
7 Utah State (MWC) vs. 10 Baylor
2 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 15 Lipscomb (ASUN)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona continues to climb the 1-seed line with one of the best records in college basketball so far. The strong non-conference resume for the Wildcats will set up a Big 12 run, which could see them solidify themselves among the top teams.

2-seed Gonzaga

Gonzaga has now completed the most important part of its resume as a member of the WCC. No team needs more non-conference strength as they prepare to face inferior competition through the majority of their schedule after the calendar turns.

East (Washington)

Buffalo
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Colgate (Patriot)
8 Clemson vs. 9 Indiana
Tampa
5 Iowa vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Louisville vs. 13 Belmont (MVC)
Oklahoma City
6 Arkansas vs. 11 Tulsa (American)
3 Houston vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
St. Louis
7 Auburn vs. 10 SMU
2 Iowa State vs. 15 ETSU (SoCon)

1-seed UConn

UConn has established itself with one of the best resumes in college basketball to this point, continuing to shift up the board with each update. The Huskies now make the jump to the 1-seed line behind the strength of their results.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State once again carries great weight in the analytic models for bracketology this season, using early results to keep them in the mix for a top seed. The Cyclones remain very close to the 1-seed line despite a place on the 2-seed line.