Athlon Sports predicts Big 12 football order of finish in 2025

The 2025 college football season is rapidly approaching. Ahead of that, Athlon Sports has released its predictions for the Big 12 conference in order of finish for the upcoming season.

There is a ton of value that comes with winning the Big 12, of course. As one of the Power Four conferences, winning the Big 12 is going to get a team a slot in the College Football Playoff. Of course, play well enough, and multiple teams could be competing for a national championship in 2025.

So, here’s a look at where the Big 12 stands as of now. This comes before anyone puts the pads on during the summer and begins practice for the 2025 season. That could lead to more changes, of course, but for the time being here’s where Athlon has things standing.

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1. Kansas State Wildcats

Athlon kicks off its predictions for the Big 12 with the Kansas State Wildcats finishing in first place. Getting to that place would go a long way for the Wildcats too. After all, with the expanded College Football Playoff, winning the Big 12 would put the Wildcats quickly in the national championship conversation.

Much of Kansas State’s season is going to hang on the relationship between quarterback Avery Johnson and new offensive coordinator Matt Wells. After retaining Johnson, the Wildcats brought in Wells. The hope is that the pair can take this offense to the next level in 2025.

2. Arizona State Sun Devils

In 2024, Arizona State shocked the Big 12 and won the conference in their first season as a Big 12 school. Now, they won’t catch anyone off guard, though. Still, the expectations are now going to be there for the Sun Devils to compete atop the conference.

The biggest question for Arizona State to answer is going to be in the running back room. They’ll have to replace running back Cam Skattebo. That won’t be easy to do. However, at the very least, Arizona State can lean on returning starting quarterback Sam Leavitt.

3. Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Texas Tech Red Raiders expect to be atop the new Big 12 and expect to be there very quickly. For the time being, Athlon has the Red Raiders ranked third in their preseason predictions. Still, the Red Raiders are hoping for better than that.

Nobody built themselves through the Transfer Portal this offseason like Texas Tech. The Red Raiders transfer class is ranked first in the 2025 cycle, according to the On3 College Football Team Transfer Portal Rankings. That includes 21 incoming transfers to Texas Tech. So, there is plenty of room for this Red Raiders team to take a major leap forward.

4. Iowa State Cyclones

Traditionally, Iowa State has not been an annual threat to win the Big 12. Under head coach Matt Campbell, though, things are certainly different for the Cyclones. Still, while they’ve been a threat under Campbell, even playing in the Big 12 Championship Game, the Cyclones still haven’t won a conference title since 1912.

Along with returning Matt Campbell for yet another season in Ames, Iowa State also returns quarterback Rocco Becht. That’s going to be a big plus. If the Cyclones then fill in a few gaps around him, particularly with turnover at wide receiver, then there’s no reason why they can’t compete for the Big 12.

5. Baylor Bears

During his time at Baylor, Dave Aranda has led the Bears to a Big 12 championship. He’s also found himself on the hot seat, though. Still, after bouncing back in 2024, Baylor now has a chance to once again be at the top of the Big 12 in 2025.

One thing that Baylor has in 2025 is continuity. There isn’t as much turnover in Waco as is often seen around the country. In particular, they’re bringing back starting quarterback Sawyer Robertson. Once he took over as the starter in 2024, the Bears took off and the hope is he can maintain that next year too.

6. BYU Cougars

The BYU Cougars were another team that caught plenty of experts by surprise in 2024. They’d go on to win double-digit games and became a real threat in the Big 12. That’s something they’d love to replicate in 2025 or even take another step forward and win the conference.

Athlon has BYU coming in closer to the middle of the Big 12 than most people in Provo would probably like. After all, they have returning starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff. The problem is besides quarterback the Cougars are going to need to deal with massive roster turnover at other positions, which can be more than a challenge to overcome.

7. Utah Utes

The hope of Utah in 2024 was that the Utah Utes would transition from the Pac-12 to the Big 12 relatively smoothly. It wasn’t, though. Offensive issues kept rearing their ugly heads and instead of competing for a conference title, they missed out on going to a bowl game.

Now, head coach Kyle Whittingham has made some major changes on the offensive side of the ball. That includes bringing in new offensive coordinator Jason Beck to run the offense along with transfer quarterback Devon Dampier. If that connection works, then Utah could be back in business.

8. Kansas Jayhawks

The Kansas Jayhawks are in an interesting position. Under Lance Leipold, they’ve found more consistent success than they’d had in recent years. At the same time, they haven’t gotten over the hump and truly competed for a Big 12 championship.

Much of Kansas’ success is going to be pinned down to quarterback Jalon Daniels. When at his best and healthy, Daniels makes Kansas a major threat in the Big 12. However, the veteran quarterback has had plenty of injury issues. So, he will need to stay healthy.

9. TCU Horned Frogs

The TCU Horned Frogs have had a bit of a roller coaster run under Sonny Dykes. That’s included winning the Big 12 and then missing a bowl game. After going 9-4 last season, TCU is hoping to take another step forward next season and be competitive in the Big 12.

Much of TCU’s success is going to, unsurprisingly, be tied to the play of quarterback Josh Hoover. He broke out last season. The hope is he can maintain that and the Horned Frogs will have one of the best offenses in the country next season. However, he won’t catch anybody by surprise.

10. Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado could be the most difficult program to judge in the Big 12 going into the 2025 season. After surprising plenty of people last year, they’re dealing with roster turnover. That’s going to lead to plenty of question marks.

Head coach Deion Sanders has to replace his son, Shedeur Sanders, and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. That’s going to be very difficult to do. To do that, he’s once again turned to the Transfer Portal. Of course, that means there are questions to answer on this roster.

11. Houston Cougars

The rebuild continues under head coach Willie Fritz. For Athlon, at least, the expectation is that the Cougars are going to take a slight step forward in the Big 12. That step forward would, certainly, go along with the history of success that Fritz has had as a program builder.

Houston had a solid defense in 2024, but an abysmal offense. So, the trick is going to be maintaining that defensive effort while becoming more competent on the offensive side of the ball. To do that, they’ll need transfer quarterback Conner Weigman to step up in a big way.

12. Cincinnati Bearcats

In two seasons in the Big 12 and two seasons under Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati has failed to make it to a bowl game. Last season, that was particularly painful. After a 5-2 start to the year, they dropped their final five games to miss a bowl. Now, Satterfield knows the pressure is on to perform.

The trick, of course, is going to be able to find a more consistent performance throughout the season. Avoid long losing streaks and be more consistent in conference play. That’s easier said than done, though, and Athlon has them towards the bottom of their Big 12 predictions.

13. Oklahoma State Cowboys

2024 was a bit of a disaster for Mike Gundy and the Oklahoma State Cowboys. They’d go winless in Big 12 play on the way to Gundy’s worst record in two decades and his first missed bowl game since 2005. That ended with the school forcing him into restructuring his contract after a reported standoff.

Gundy needs to turn things around, but Athlon doesn’t seem to be expecting much from Oklahoma State. New coordinators are going to lead to questions, certainly. On top of that, Gundy is still looking for the next great Oklahoma State quarterback.

14. West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia made the decision to move on from Neal Brown, who had been producing some relatively average seasons, at the end of 2024. In his place, they’d bring back an old face, Rich Rodriguez, who led the program to some of its best seasons back in their Big East days. The hope is he can replicate that success now in the Big 12.

To get the roster he wants, Rodriguez has flipped the roster through the Transfer Portal. The Mountaineers are going to look completely new, so it’s a bit difficult to judge where they’ll be next season. For now, it’s year one of a rebuild and that’s why they’re coming in at 14th.

15. Arizona Wildcats

The Arizona Wildcats are another one of those teams that managed to have a disappointing season in 2024. It had been the first season for Brent Brennan, replacing Jedd Fisch. However, Fisch took several key players with him and the offense didn’t live up to expectations.

The pressure is on year two for Brennan. He’s going to be expected to do better than he did last year. However, it doesn’t seem like Athlon has high expectations for the Wildcats. Instead, they’re predicting another 15th-place finish.

16. UCF Knights

UCF, like West Virginia, made the decision to bring back a coach who had previously had success at the school. In the Knights’ case, that meant going back to Scott Frost. In their case, that came after a bad season for Gus Malzahn before he left to become the offensive coordinator at Florida State.

The Knights are an incredibly difficult team to judge. In the face of numerous question marks, UCF has largely been overlooked going into the 2025 season. So, for the time being, they’re going to be starting toward the bottom of the conference standings.