College Basketball Rankings: Predicting the AP Poll Top 25 following losses from top teams

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The recent run of upsets across college basketball continued this week with many Top 25 teams struggling to maintain their spot. Another shake-up in the AP Poll is sure to take place, rewarding the teams which escaped while punishing others.

Trying to predict how the voters will view each win and loss leads to a shuffled up version of the Top 25, with some anticipated new-comers ready to jump into the conversation.

Houston went from the last undefeated team in college basketball to a two-loss team, while five of the Top 6 teams from last week’s rankings dropped at least one game. The chaos continues as contenders rise and fall.

Here is how I think the new AP Top 25 will look on Jan. 15:

1. Purdue (Last week: 1)

Purdue's Zach Edey — Purdue’s Zach Edey (John E. Sokolowski/USA Today Sports)

Despite dropping another game against Nebraska last week, a win against Penn State over the weekend is just enough to keep Purdue atop the rankings thanks to multiple missteps from the competition.

The Boilermakers will head on the road twice this week against in-state rival Indiana and against Iowa.

2. UConn (Last week: 4)

Nov 27, 2023; Storrs, Connecticut, USA; UConn Huskies center Donovan Clingan (32) reacts after being fouled by New Hampshire Wildcats in the second half at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

UConn was the only team ranked inside the Top 6 of last week’s AP Poll to avoid a loss, taking down Xavier and Georgetown to boost them up the board and into the conversation for No. 1 overall.

The Huskies will play games against Creighton before heading on the road to play Villanova.

3. Kansas (Last week: 3)

Hunter Dickinson is one of the top transfers in college basketball (Photo by Dr. Michael Huang | Kentucky Sports Radio)

Kansas suffered one of the worst losses of the week against UCF, but rebounded over the weekend with a win over Top 10 Oklahoma, making the resume of the past week a difficult one to evaluate.

The Jayhawks will go on the road twice over the next week, first against Oklahoma State and then West Virginia.

4. Houston (Last week: 2)

LJ Cryer Houston — Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Houston had risen up the rankings and looked to have a great shot at the No. 1 ranking before dropping two Big 12 games against Iowa State and TCU. Once the last undefeated team in college basketball, they now have two losses on the resume.

The Cougars look to rebound this week by facing Texas Tech and UCF, both games at home.

5. North Carolina (Last week: 7)

north-carolina-head-coach-hubert-davis-gives-rj-davis-injury-update — North Carolina senior RJ Davis has been on of college basketballs biggest stock risers over the past two weeks (Bennett/Getty Images)

North Carolina looks the part of a highly-ranked team and managed to avoid a disaster when other teams around them dropped. They took care of business against NC State and Syracuse.

The Tar Heels continue the ACC schedule this week against Louisville before heading on the road to play Boston College.

6. Tennessee (Last week: 5)

(Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK) Tennessee guard Dalton Knecht (3) dribbles the ball during an NCAA college basketball game between Tennessee and Tarleton State at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center, Thursday, Dec. 21, 2023.

Tennessee stumbled on the road against Mississippi State, but was able to bounce back over the weekend by taking down a better-than-thought Georgia team.

The Volunteers play Florida and Alabama over the next week, giving them a chance to assert their place near the top of the SEC.

7. Kentucky (Last week: 6)

Kentucky Wildcat Antonio Reeves — (Photo: Dr. Michael Huang/KSR)

Kentucky picked up a win over Missouri but could not find a way to win on the road against Texas A&M, causing them to drop slightly in this week’s AP Poll along with the rest.

The Wildcats host two home games this week, first against Mississippi State and then against Georgia.

8. Duke (Last week: 11)

Duke F Kyle Filipowski — Rob Kinnan | USA TODAY Sports

Duke continues to rise through the rankings with wins over Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech to bring the win streak up to eight games in a row.

The Blue Devils will get a full week to prepare for a second matchup against Pittsburgh on Saturday.

9. Baylor (Last week: 14)

baylor-small-forward-jalen-bridges-announces-decision-to-return-to-school-for-2023-24 — (Justin Tafoya / Getty Images)

Baylor boats one of the best results this weekend of any Top 25 team after beating BYU and Cincinnati to move back into the Top 10 projection.

The conference schedule continues next week with road tests against Kansas State and Texas.

10. Auburn (Last week: 16)

auburn-center-dylan-cardwell-announces-decision-to-return-to-tigers-for-2023-2024 — (Photo by Getty Images)

Auburn could soar into the Top 10 after knocking off Texas A&M and LSU. They have become an analytic darling with great numbers in the NET and KenPom. Now with people getting a glimpse of the eye test too, the nine-game win streak has them among the top teams in the country.

The Tigers will play at Vanderbilt next week before a home game against Ole Miss.

Ranking 11-25

11. Arizona (Last week: 8)
12. Wisconsin (Last week: 15)
13. Illinois (Last week: 10)
14. Oklahoma (Last week: 9)
15. Memphis (Last week: 13)
16. Marquette (Last week: 11)
17. Creighton (Last week: 22)
18. Utah State (Last week: 20)
19. TCU (Last week: NR)
20. BYU (Last week: 18)
21. Colorado State (Last week: 17)
22. SDSU (Last week: 19)
23. FAU (Last week: 24)
24. Clemson (Last week: 21)
25. Ole Miss (Last week: NR)

Projected to drop out: Gonzaga (Last Week: 23), Texas (Last week: 25)