College Football Playoff Prediction: All eyes turn to Ohio State-Michigan

We can be honest with one another, can’t we? We’re in the trust bracket here.

This past weekend’s slate of games wasn’t the most exciting. With the exception of Pittsburgh beating Georgia Tech to shake up an already frothy ACC title race, there weren’t a lot of results that threatened to change the College Football Playoff rankings. Oregon dispatched USC. Oklahoma beat Missouri. Most of the remaining teams currently projected to be in the field were either off or cruising past overmatched foes.

That won’t be the case next week. Alabama’s visit to Auburn carries enormous stakes for the Crimson Tide. The ACC race will finally be decided, and so will the participants in the Big 12 title game. But no result on this lackluster Saturday mattered more for generating potential drama than Michigan’s 45-20 win against Maryland.

That result means the 9-2 Wolverines will host 11-0 Ohio State next Saturday at Michigan Stadium. Ohio State is trying to break a four-game losing streak to Michigan. The Wolverines are trying to once again rip the Buckeyes’ hearts out of their chests. Only this time, doing so would help Michigan get into the CFP.

The Game was interesting enough last season when a long-out-of-it Michigan team shocked Ohio State and created an existential crisis that may have actually helped the Buckeyes find themselves and then roll to a national title. But it could be so much juicier this year. Michigan could win again, extend the streak and make the playoff. Or Ohio State could break the streak, and, to add insult to injury, crush the Wolverines’ playoff dreams.

This is exactly what rivalry weekend should be.

College Football Playoff Projected Seeding

1. Ohio State: The Buckeyes beat Rutgers 42-9, but all eyes were on the two people not playing. Will receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate play against Michigan? Ohio State coach Ryan Day said both are “day-to-day.” The Buckeyes’ playoff chances are in no danger against the Wolverines, but we all know this game is about more than that. Even if Michigan couldn’t possibly earn a playoff trip with a win, the Buckeyes need to break their four-game losing streak against the Wolverines for their own sanity.

2. Indiana: The Hoosiers were off this week. They’ll probably annihilate rival Purdue next week. Then it’s on to Ohio State or Oregon in Indianapolis.

3. Texas A&M: Like the Buckeyes, the Aggies can’t be knocked out of the CFP if they lose to their rival. But Texas A&M needs to beat Texas for psychological reasons. And like Ohio State against Michigan, Texas A&M will be favored, but no one will be shocked if the game gets weird.

4. Georgia: The Bulldogs cruised past Charlotte on Saturday. Next, they’ll face rival Georgia Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. If the Yellow Jackets had played better the past few weeks, a repeat of last year’s eight-overtime nailbiter at Sanford Stadium might seem more likely. But the two teams feel like they’re going in different directions. Afterward, the Bulldogs will be scoreboard watching to see if they have to play in the SEC title game. And yes, “have to play” is the correct wording when it comes to Georgia. Texas A&M and Ole Miss want to go to Atlanta. Alabama has no choice but to punch its ticket to Atlanta if it wants to make the CFP. But the Bulldogs probably can clinch a bye just by beating Georgia Tech. They’d probably rather miss having to play another SEC heavyweight.

5. Texas Tech: The Red Raiders finish the regular season in Morgantown, where they should enjoy a relatively large talent advantage. The biggest drama for them might be learning whether they’ll play a team they’ve already beaten (BYU) or the one that beat them (Arizona State).

6. Ole Miss: All eyes will be on the Egg Bowl on Friday, but not necessarily because of the game. Thanks to a win at Oklahoma that should act as a buoy, Ole Miss probably can lose to Mississippi State and still make the CFP. But even if the favored Rebels win as expected, the drama will be sky-high as the college football world awaits Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin’s decision. Is he staying at Ole Miss or going to LSU or Florida?

7. Oregon: The Ducks played their best game of the season in a 42-27 win against USC despite being banged up on the offensive line and at receiver. They won’t take Washington lightly because that’s an intense rivalry. Oregon probably wouldn’t mind seeing Ohio State beat Michigan, because the most dangerous Ducks team might be one that has time to heal up before the CFP.

8. Oklahoma: The Sooners clamped down on Missouri even though quarterback Beau Pribula made his return. If Oklahoma duplicates its defensive performance from the Alabama and Missouri games, LSU might struggle to score at all next week.

9. Notre Dame: The Irish crushed Syracuse 70-7, but they weren’t really trying to score style points. If they had been, they might have scored 140. Next up is a Stanford team that Notre Dame should pound, but the Cardinal are coming off a big rivalry win against Cal.

10. Alabama: The pucker factor is high this week as the Crimson Tide prepare to play an Iron Bowl at Auburn with a CFP berth on the line. In Alabama’s last two trips to Auburn, the Tide needed a Bryce Young miracle drive to force overtime against a Bryan Harsin-led Tigers team and they needed Jalen Milroe to throw a touchdown pass on fourth-and-goal from the 31-yard line. Of course, this isn’t going to be easy.

11. SMU: I really have no idea which team to choose as the ACC champion. ESPN keeps sliding Miami here because the Hurricanes are the highest-ranked ACC team. But Miami doesn’t have as clean a path to the title game as SMU and Virginia. All SMU needs to do is win next week, and they’re in. The Mustangs destroyed Louisville 38-6 on Saturday. If they beat a Cal team reeling from a loss to Stanford, they’re in. And their opponent most likely would be Virginia.

12. Tulane: Watch the bottom of the CFP rankings closely on Tuesday. Tulane was the only American team ranked last week. The Green Wave are tied atop the conference standings with Navy and North Texas. If two American teams are ranked in the committee’s top 25 on Tuesday and both win their next games, they’re in the title game. Navy faces the toughest week 14 opponent (Memphis on Thanksgiving). Tulane plays 1-10 Charlotte and North Texas plays 5-6 Temple.

First four out: Miami, BYU, Utah, Michigan

The Projected Bracket

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas Tech
Winner plays No. 4 Georgia in the Cotton Bowl

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Ole Miss
Winner plays No. 3 Texas A&M in the Sugar Bowl

No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
Winner plays No. 2 Indiana in the Orange Bowl

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Winner plays No. 1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl