College Football Playoff prediction: ESPN analytics predict 12-team CFP bracket using strength of record

ESPN’s Billy Connelly revealed the current College Football Playoff projections going by ESPN’s Resume SP+ and Strength of Record. It’s an intriguing look at how the 12-team bracket would shake out.

We’ll start with the first four out, which eliminates some high quality teams, especially with what we know about them halfway through the year. But until the College Football Playoff sees further expansion, this will be the reality!

So without further ado, let’s take a look at the projected College Football Playoff per ESPN’s SP+ and Strength of Record. Also, it’s time for the second half of the season!

First Four Out 

Vanderbilt (6-1), Ole Miss (6-1), Notre Dame (5-2), Missouri (6-1)

All four of these teams could end up in the College Football Playoff anyway! But as of now, they are just on the outside looking in. 

Vanderbilt and Missouri are hot as Ole Miss dropped its first game of the year. Meanwhile, Notre Dame beat a ranked USC team for their fifth straight win and are squarely back in the mix.

College Football Playoff First Round Game #1

No. 12 USF (6-1) at No. 5 Alabama (6-1)

USF and Alabama, but in the College Football Playoff? Oh sign us up after the recent history of this game. Now that the Bulls are hitting their stride, this might not look like the other year where Jalen Milroe was benched and Alabama played musical chairs.

Alex Golesh is a wondermaker down in Tampa, while Kalen DeBoer has everything clicking in Tuscaloosa. It’s a brutal environment for the top Group of Five team, but an intriguing matchup nonetheless.

College Football Playoff First Round Game #2

No. 11 Texas Tech (5-1) at No. 6 BYU (7-0)

An all-Big 12 matchup here in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Funny enough, these two teams play each other November 8th and it could eliminate the Red Raiders from contention.

Texas Tech suffered their first loss while BYU won the Holy War. It’s possible the two teams will rematch in the Big 12 title game though. As far as a third matchup, it’s unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility!

College Football Playoff First Round Game #3

No. 10 Miami (5-1) at No. 7 Georgia (6-1)

Miami suffered its first loss of the season by dropping a Friday night game to Louisville. But the Hurricanes are still in for now, but on the road at Georgia.

The Bulldogs beat Ole Miss in a thriller and are firmly in the College Football Playoff right now. The Rebels are on the outside looking in. Kirby Smart and crew are creeping up back towards the top of the SEC.

College Football Playoff First Round Game #4

No. 9 Oklahoma (6-1) at No. 8 Georgia Tech (7-0)

Oklahoma dominated South Carolina and despite its loss to Texas, the Sooners are back in the thick of things. But, they’d have to hit the road in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

Georgia Tech could make the CFP for the first time as well. They are undefeated right now and projected to win the ACC, per the ESPN SP+ and Strength of Record.

No. 1 Indiana (7-0) vs. TBD

Indiana, yes Indiana is the projected top seed in the College Football Playoff. The Hoosiers bulldozed teams and beat Oregon on the road.

Curt Cignetti and crew are projected to top the BIg Ten and be the top dog in the bracket. That is certainly a realistic possibility a month and a half from now!

No. 2 Ohio State (7-0) vs. TBD

Ohio State has done nothing to suggest they’re not the best team in college football right now. But ESPN’s metrics have the Buckeyes slightly behind the Hoosiers right now.

Still, Julian Sayin is playing at a Heisman level, with other Heisman caliber players like WR Jeremiah Smith and DB Caleb Downs. Ohio State and Indiana are projected to play in the Big Ten Championship and could rematch in the College Football Playoff.

No. 3 Texas A&M (7-0) vs. TBD

The Aggies are the projected SEC champions according to the ESPN metrics this week. Texas A&M would get a first round bye in the College Football Playoff.

Mike Elko has this team rolling at 7-0 right now. They have ranked games in three of their final five games: at LSU, at Missouri and at Texas. We’ll see if they are “for real, for real.”

No. 4 Oregon (6-1) vs. TBD

That’s right, three Big Ten teams in the top four of the College Football Playoff! Remember, the five highest ranked conference champs are guaranteed a spot in the CFP, but not a top four seed and bye this year.

So, Oregon could very well run the table and get to 11-1, but still be left out of the Big Ten Championship via tiebreaks going to Indiana and Ohio State. But, it could vault Oregon into a bye week.