College Football Playoff: Projecting 12-team bracket after week 10

As we re-train our brains to prepare for a 12-team College Football Playoff next season, we need to remember that we’ll be looking at different key numbers.

The difference between No. 4 and No. 5 still matters a great deal, but instead of one team making the field and the other heading to a consolation bowl, now the No. 4 team gets a week off and the No. 5 team faces a path that would require a four-game slog to win the national title. The difference between No. 8 and No. 9 matters as well. The No. 8 seed gets a home game in the first round, while No. 9 hits the road. 

The other major spot usually will be between No. 11 and No. 12. Why not No. 12 and No. 13? Because the highest ranked Group of 5 champ will claim that No. 12 seed, and that champ won’t always actually be ranked in the top 12. So someone would get bumped.

In our projected scenario using this season’s results so far, Saturday’s Tennessee-Missouri game would be a CFP elimination matchup. Ole Miss could lose at Georgia, but it wouldn’t necessarily be guaranteed a spot even if it went 10-2. Penn State would be in the same boat heading into a matchup with Michigan. Meanwhile. Utah would head to Washington with a chance to re-insert itself in the CFP conversation. Oregon State, sitting at 7-2 with games remaining against Washington and Oregon, also would still have the chance to play its way into the field.

A lot more teams will still be in the hunt next November. 

1. Georgia (SEC champ)
2. Michigan (Big Ten champ)
3. Florida State (ACC champ)
4. Oregon (Pac-12 champ) 
5. Ohio State (At-large)
6. Texas  (Big 12 champ)
7. Washington (At-large)
8. Alabama (At-large)
9. Louisville (At-large)
10. Ole Miss (At-large)
11. Penn State (At-large)
12. Tulane (American Athletic Conference champ)

Playoff Bracket Matchups

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Ohio State 
**Winner plays No. 4 Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Texas
**Winner plays No. 3 Florida State in the Cotton Bowl

No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Washington
**Winner plays No. 2 Michigan in the Orange Bowl

No. 9 Louisville at No. 8 Alabama
**Winner plays No. 1 Georgia in the Peach Bowl