ESPN ranks ACC Football teams from first to last ahead of Week 4

Week 3 of the college football season has come and gone, giving us a better idea what the outlook looks like across college football. The ACC still has plenty of mystery to it, though, which ESPN has attempted to cut through with the Football Power Index.

According to ESPN, The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.

With that in mind, let’s check out how the FPI has the ACC sorted through the first three weeks of the season. We dive in below.

1. Miami Hurricanes (3-0) – 17.1 FPI rank

Nobody in the ACC has the quality wins that Miami has racked up so far, with Notre Dame and USF both ranked at the time the games were played. And Miami’s win over USF wasn’t just a win, it was a curb-stomping.

Quarterback Carson Beck is playing loose and free, and that’s great news for the Hurricanes. There’s hardly been much dropoff at the position despite losing No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward. Next up is a home date with Florida, a team Miami decimated last year.

2. Florida State Seminoles (2-0) – 10.4

Few teams have surprised the way Florida State has in the early going. A Week 1 upset of Alabama — a dominant one at that — was enough to instantly erase the bad taste of a two-win 2024 campaign.

How good can Florida State be? That remains to be seen. And until the meeting with Miami in three weeks, we might not know a whole lot. Games vs. Kent State and Virginia don’t figure to be all that telling.

3. Clemson Tigers (1-2) – 9.3

The FPI still clearly likes Clemson near the top of the ACC, despite a pair of losses to start the season. While only one of those teams the Tigers lost to were ranked at the time, both are now.

So it’s hard to get a complete gauge on Clemson right now. Keeping things from spiraling any further might be the biggest task at the moment for coach Dabo Swinney and company.

4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-0) – 8.6

Georgia Tech and Brent Key were a popular pick to make some noise in the ACC before the season began. Well, the season has begun and that’s looking like a smart call following a win over Clemson this weekend.

The Yellow Jackets are a hard-nosed gritty football team, led by quarterback Haynes King. King is one of the more physical quarterbacks out there, capable of taking a pounding in the run game. He has made sure it counts so far.

5. SMU Mustangs (2-1) – 8.0

SMU is this close to 3-0 on the season, having tripped up in an overtime contest against Baylor that went down to the wire. It’s hard to read too much into the other results, which came against East Texas A&M and Missouri State.

We’ll find out a lot more about SMU and where it stacks up in the ACC picture this weekend when it wraps up non-conference play with a road trip to TCU. Win that and things are looking up.

6. Louisville Cardinals (2-0) – 6.7

Louisville is one of a few teams that has only played two games so far. Neither was against a particularly stout opponent, though the Cardinals took care of business in both cases.

Quarterback Miller Moss is still working to get acclimated to the offense, something that’s become clear through two games. The Cardinals will likely go as he goes, so the sooner he fully settles in the better.

7. Virginia Cavaliers (2-1) – 4.4

Virginia has a pair of dominant non-conference wins against inferior opponents, plus a close loss to ACC foe NC State on the road. The competitiveness of that contest against the Wolfpack bodes well heading into the heart of conference play.

Quarterback Chandler Morris has been good so far, throwing for 670 yards and four touchdowns, against just one interception. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have had three rushers in the backfield they’ve been able to rely on. The offense has some answers.

8. NC State Wolfpack (3-0) – 3.5

NC State has two wins over conference opponents already, but only one of them counts in the ACC standings, as a meeting with Virginia was technically a non-conference game. Still, that result helps figure out where the Wolfpack stack up.

In fact, all three NC State wins have come by 10 points or less. It’s a team that’s proving it knows how to win, even in close games. That’s worth noting as the season continues to unfold.

9. Pittsburgh Panthers (2-1) – 2.6

Pittsburgh is set to enter ACC play this weekend with a matchup against Louisville, a meeting that will determine some early pecking order of potential contenders in the league. The Panthers have won two games against overmatched opponents convincingly, then tripped up in the Backyard Brawl.

Can the team rally from the disappointment of last week’s loss in time to face a good Louisville team? PIttsburgh has to get off to a good start to the conference slate because the back end of the schedule is brutal.

10. California Golden Bears (3-0) – 2.5

The Bears have one of the stronger non-conference starts in the ACC, posting convincing wins over Oregon State and Minnesota. Cal also has the luxury of a remarkably light schedule.

There isn’t a single ranked opponent on the schedule and it’s hard to see where the first loss for Cal might come? Louisville with three weeks left in the season? That’s a legitimate possibility at the moment.

Rest of the ACC in the FPI

11. Boston College Eagles (1-2) – 2.0
12. Duke Blue Devils (1-2) – 1.9
13. Syracuse Orange (2-1) – 0.2
14. Virginia Tech Hokies (0-3) – -0.9
15. Stanford Cardinal (1-2) – -1.4
16. North Carolina Tar Heels (2-1) – -4.1
17. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-1) – -8.7