ESPN ranks Big 12 Football teams from first to last ahead of Week 5

Week 4 of the college football season has come and gone, giving us a better idea what the outlook looks like across college football. The Big 12 still has plenty of mystery to it, though, which ESPN has attempted to cut through with the Football Power Index.

According to ESPN, The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.

With that in mind, let’s check out how the FPI has the Big 12 sorted through the first four weeks of the season. We dive in below.

1. BYU Cougars (3-0) – 15.5

BYU hasn’t had a terribly difficult schedule just yet, but that will change as it enters conference play. The Cougars have wins over Portland State, Stanford and East Carolina. All three wins were convincing.

Quarterback Bear Bachmeier has played well since the departure of Jake Retzlaff, steadying the position. He has thrown for 518 yards while accounting for eight total touchdowns with no interceptions.

2. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0) – 14.1

One of two 4-0 teams in the conference with a big road win over Utah now in the books, Texas Tech is establishing itself as one of the Big 12 favorites and a College Football Playoff contender. The Red Raiders are rolling.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens at quarterback after last weekend. The offense was bogged down a little bit with Behren Morton before he was hurt, then Will Hammond came in and was excellent. Could we see both play going forward?

3. TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) – 12.5

TCU has played a respectable schedule so far, easily dusting North Carolina in the opener and then taking care of Abilene Christian and SMU. Out to a 3-0 start, this week’s contest against Arizona State will tell us a lot.

The Horned Frogs have relied on quarterback Josh Hoover to get to this point. Hoover has thrown for 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns, against just two interceptions.

4. Kansas Jayhawks (3-1) – 11.2

The Jayhawks tripped up in the non-conference part of the schedule, falling to a very talented Missouri team. That won’t be a dealbreaker in Big 12 play at all.

And the Jayhawks have handled business in their other three games. A conference showdown against West Virginia resulted in a 41-10 steamrolling. Can Kansas keep it going against Cincinnati this week?

5. Utah Utes (3-1) – 10.1

Utah suffered its first loss of the season against Texas Tech. The game was close for a while, then it really got away from the Utes toward the end.

Quarterback Devon Dampier finally looked mortal after a tremendous start to the season. He threw for just 162 yards and had two interceptions in the loss, so how he bounces back will be key.

6. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-1) – 9.6

The deeper into the season we get the more quality Arizona State’s tight loss at Mississippi State looks. The Bulldogs remain unbeaten.

Since that loss, which won’t hurt Arizona State at all in the Big 12 standings, the Sun Devils have recorded a road win over Baylor. Now another chance at a quality win, with TCU coming to town on Friday night.

7. Iowa State Cyclones (4-0) – 8.1

Few teams have played as many close games as Iowa State this season, with three one-possession wins in the books already. Some of them, of course, probably shouldn’t have been that close, like a road trip to Arkansas State.

Still, quarterback Rocco Becht is going to give the Cyclones a chance in just about every Big 12 game this fall. And the schedule is balanced enough that there aren’t any totally brutal stretches.

8. Arizona Wildcats (3-0) – 7.3

It’s hard to evaluate Arizona, which played a pair of relative cupcakes to open the season and then had a narrow win over a pretty hapless Kansas State team. This weekend should help us learn a little more.

Arizona is set to travel to Iowa State for a night game showdown on ESPN. Win that one and Arizona will start to be talked about as a contender in the Big 12.

9. UCF Knights (3-0) – 7.1

UCF’s start has been great under new and old coach Scott Frost, but like Arizona it’s tough to take away too much so far. How do you even evaluate a game against Bill Belichick‘s North Carolina?

The road ahead looks extremely manageable for UCF in the Big 12 race. Most of the hard games are backloaded on the schedule, and it’s entirely possible UCF could get out to a 7-0 start before heading to Baylor.

10. Baylor Bears (2-2) – 6.5

Baylor hasn’t won some close games against quality teams, and that’s the biggest problem right now. But the program was competitive against Auburn and Arizona State in losses. It’s also got a good win over SMU in overtime.

If the Bears want to prove they can be a problem in the Big 12, they need to take care of business at Oklahoma State and vs. Kansas State in the next two weeks. Then it’ll be a meaningful meeting at TCU before a relatively easy back half of the schedule.

Rest of the Big 12 in the FPI

11. Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1) – 6.0
12. Houston Cougars (3-0) – 5.4
13. Kansas State Wildcats (1-3) – 4.9
14. Colorado Buffaloes (2-2) – 3.4
15. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-2) – -1.3
16. Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-2) – -9.6