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Greg McElroy paints grim outlook for Texas' College Football Playoff chances after seven spot drop

IMG_0985by: Griffin McVeigh6 hours agogriffin_mcveigh
NCAA Football: Texas at Florida
Oct 4, 2025; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian walks off the field after a game against the Florida Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Whether or not Texas could get into the College Football Playoff as a three-loss team might have been answered Tuesday. The Longhorns fell seven spots to No. 17 in the latest rankings, significantly dropping after the 25-point loss to Georgia. Some wondered if Steve Sarkisian‘s bunch split UGA and Texas A&M, would they get in?

At the very least, ESPN’s Greg McElroy feels like he knows the answer. Right as the Texas graphic came up on screen, McElroy began to paint a grim outlook on what is ahead. Two games vs. Arkansas and Texas A&M remain but he does not see a path to earn an at-large bid.

“We had kind of wondered, can Texas still get in as a three-loss team, given the strength of schedule and who they lost to?” McElroy asked. “Well, the seven-spot drop, not looking like they’re going to have enough firepower to get back into the top-12 as the at-large. Even though that last game against Texas A&M, a win against them, a top-three opponent, still won’t be enough to get into the field.”

Part of the logic behind Texas making the field with three losses is who the opponents were. Ohio State has a chance to be the CFP’s wire-to-wire No. 1 team, a game Texas lost to open the year. Georgia and Texas A&M are both currently in the top four. The lone horrific blemish on the resume, from a win-loss standpoint, is Florida.

This conversation goes all the way back to Saturday morning on ESPN College GameDay. Kirk Herbstreit was someone who believed the path was there for Texas. However, as he watched the result play out in Athens, Herbstreit began to cast his own doubt.

“We thought if Texas competed in this game, they didn’t get blown out, it would open this discussion,” Herbstreit said. “If you were to beat Texas A&M, they’re a really good team, as we know. But you wonder if the committee looks to 35-10 and says, ‘Eeehhhh, they started out competitive and after the Anthony Hill interception, they got it to 14-10. But this game’s gotten away from them.’ You wonder if this is too big of a loss that it almost wouldn’t matter what happens.”

At this point, all Texas can do is win out and maybe give the committee something to think about. McElroy does not appear confident any of it will matter, though.