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Greg McElroy picks Florida State over Virginia in a shootout

Untitled design (2)by: Sam Gillenwater09/25/25samdg_33
Florida State QB Thomas Castellanos, Virginia QB Chandler Morris
Melina Myers & Amber Searls | Imagn Images

No. 8 Florida State vs. Virginia will open Friday’s action in college football with an ACC matchup in Charlottesville. Greg McElroy is expecting there to be plenty of points, too, once the Seminoles and Cavaliers kick it off tomorrow night.

Florida State vs. Virginia was the first game that McElroy predicted on ‘Always College Football’ on Thursday. He began by setting up the meeting in the Atlantic Coast Conference, with the ‘Noles playing their first road game and their conference opener this season, while the ‘Hoos will be playing their third game already in league play.

“An undefeated, Top 10 Florida State team, first true road test of the season, opportunity to kind of validate what was a dominant non-conference run,” McElroy said. “And, for Virginia, it’s a chance to legitimize this high-powered offensive attack against a legit, top-ten team with national championship implications.”

Offense was the talking point in this analysis for McElroy, with Florida State and Virginia each having top five units in total offense in the nation and both being Top 12 scoring offenses in the country. The Seminoles are No. 1 in both with 58 points and 628.7 yards per game, while the Cavaliers aren’t far behind at 45.5 points and 564.5 yards per game.

McElroy noted the dual capabilities of the offense for FSU and then the aerial attack at UVA. They’re both also led by productive transfer quarterbacks with Thomas Castellanos, averaging 244.3 total yards per game with six touchdowns overall, and Chandler Morris, who’s throwing for 262.5 yards per game, and is averaging 295.5 yards overall, with nine total touchdowns scored.

“Florida State has done a great job under new (OC) Gus Malzahn – super physical, super dominant. Been record-breaking with how they’re attacking people on the ground,” McElroy said. “On the other side, Tony Elliott and Virginia? They have a high-profile transfer quarterback. This has been a very explosive and efficient passing attack with numbers through the air that have been off-the-charts good.

“Thomas Castellanos? Super dynamic after transferring down from Boston College. He has been everything that Florida State could have wanted him to be. He’s a perfect fit for what Gus Malzahn wants to be. You know he’s a super effective runner. He has also been really good on the downfield throws. That’s been really, really big. Chandler Morris on the other side…So, he comes in and has a pretty deep, talented receiver corps. He’s been pretty electric. He’s already thrown for over 1,000 yards. Only one interception this year, too.”

That all broken down, McElroy went with Florida State to win over Virginia by game’s end. He’s expecting both teams to put up points, but just for the Seminoles to have more on the board to move to 4-0 with their first conference win of the fall.

“I’m taking Florida State, but don’t be surprised if this is a shootout,” McElroy said. “I think Virginia can score. I just don’t think they’ll be able to score enough against a Florida State team that feels like they’re on a mission.”