Greg McElroy sides with Ole Miss over Arkansas

No. 17 Ole Miss hosts Arkansas in the Razorbacks’ SEC opener on Saturday. The Rebels won their first SEC game of the season over Kentucky 30-23 during Week 2.

The Razorbacks are 6.5-point underdogs to the Rebels in Oxford this weekend, per BetMGM. Ole Miss failed to cover the spread last weekend, and Arkansas has been known to play the Rebels close over the years. Six of the last 10 meetings have been decided by one score.

ESPN’s Greg McElroy broke the upcoming matchup, alluding to the two team’s history for his final prediction on the game. Ole Miss has won the last three games that were decided by less than a touchdown or less, and McElroy expects history to repeat itself.

“Ole Miss has not generated a lot of takeaways. They forced just one turnover through two games,” McElroy explained on his show, Always College Football. “Now, Arkansas has shown the ability to pressure the quarterback and create turnovers — four sacks, two interceptions against Arkansas State by itself. … Arkansas is 7-1 against the spread on the road since the start of last season. Arkansas is 22-11-1 against the spread as an underdog under Sam Pittman, 15-5-1 against the spread on the road under Pittman, and 13-4 against the spread as a road underdog.

“I’ll take Ole Miss, but I think this game will be closer than the experts think. I think it has a chance to be pretty high scoring and I like both offenses that’ll be on the field.”

These stats make Arkansas seem like a reliable option to at least cover the spread this weekend. However, winning outright is a different story. While the Razorbacks lead the all-time series 37-30-1, the Rebels have been more successful as of late. Ole Miss has won three of the last four matchups in the series including five of the last seven.

Both teams have began the season 2-0. Arkansas has wins over Alabama A&M and Arkansas State, so Saturday will be the first real test for the Razorbacks. Meanwhile, Ole Miss survived their trip to Lexington following a 63-7 season-opening victory over Georgia State.

Kickoff between the Rebels and Razorbacks is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. The matchup between former SEC West foes will air live on ESPN.

The over/under point total is set at 62.5 points with under 48 hours to go under the opening kickoff. The line backs McElroy’s theory that Saturday’s showdown will be fast-paced and high-scoring.