Josh Pate predicts record for every Big Ten football team in 2025

The 2025 college football season is set to begin in earnest this weekend, as the first Big Ten teams will hit the field for their openers. So how about predicting the record for each Big Ten team?

College football analyst Josh Pate did just that on Tuesday night on Josh Pate’s College Football Show. And On3 is here to recap his picks.

What’s interesting is that Pate has four Big Ten teams racking up 10 or more wins. Two of his predictions are for 11-1 seasons. So who made the cut? Let’s dive in below.

FORMAT: Team – Win Total (PREDICTION: Record)

Michigan – 9.5 (UNDER: 8 wins)

Josh Pate said he’s having a tough time getting a grip on Michigan, mostly because it feels like they’re a year away as the Bryce Underwood era gets underway. He thinks the talent at receiver needs another year to get up to snuff.

But Michigan can sell Underwood’s success this year and turn it into an excellent recruiting haul at the position. Still, it’s a year away, so he’s taking the under at an 8-4 season.

Oregon – 9.5 (OVER: 11 wins)

Oregon doesn’t have any glaring deficiencies, Pate said. Quarterback Dante Moore could be the surprise of the Big Ten this year, which would vault the team into the playoff conversation.

The offensive line should be a strength, thanks to some offseason additions. That unit looks like an Oregon offensive line is supposed to, Pate said. He also loves the staff, pointing out “it’s just a program that’s maturing.” The over hits in a big way.

Penn State – 10.5 (OVER: 11 wins)

Penn State has the fewest questions of any of the Big Ten teams this year, Pate said. The Nittany Lions are the favorite to win the Joe Moore Award for best offensive line, too.

The schedule sets up favorably with a bye before a home date against Oregon. The real question for Pate is the wide receiver unit. Can the new guys step up? If so, the over can hit.

Nebraska – 7.5 (OVER: 10 wins)

Can Nebraska make some noise in the Big Ten and announce it is back to big-time college football in a major way? Pate certainly thinks so, because of “incremental improvement” across the board.

He is a big believer in Matt Rhule, who he thinks has done a nice job with the receiver unit. He also likes the experience on the starting offensive line, coupled with a manageable schedule. The Week 4 game against Michigan will be a big one.

Ohio State – 10.5 (UNDER: 10 wins)

Few teams can replace production as well as Ohio State, but replacing both coordinators and the production from the defensive line will be difficult. The offense might flash greatness, but how the other questions get answered will be key.

Pate points out that Ohio State lost two games in the regular season last year, something people overlook. There was some inconsistency then. Will there be inconsistency again? He thinks so.

USC – 7.5 (OVER: 9 wins)

The collective attitude around the USC program is, “you’ll see,” according to Pate. The Trojans believe they’re capable of making some serious noise.

Pate calls the Illinois game the swing game of the season, even though it’s not one that’s being talked about nationally. If USC is undefeated after that game at 5-0, the Trojans will be in the national spotlight with a bye week heading into the Michigan contest. Big stakes.

Rest of the Big Ten Record Predictions:

Illinois: 8-4
Indiana: 8-4
Washington: 8-4
Iowa: 7-5
Minnesota: 7-5
Michigan State: 6-6
Rutgers: 6-6
Wisconsin: 5-7
Maryland: 4-8
UCLA: 4-8
Northwestern: 3-9
Purdue: 3-9