Oddsmaker would downgrade Ole Miss 2-4 points without Lane Kiffin; will it cost Rebels home playoff game?

College Football Playoff selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek was non-committal on whether the committee would drop Ole Miss in the rankings if the Rebels lose coach Lane Kiffin. However, Circa Sports’ primary college football oddsmaker said he would downgrade Ole Miss without Kiffin by as many as four points.

That would be significant because it could mean the difference between Ole Miss hosting a first-round playoff game or having to open on the road.

If Kiffin takes either the Florida or LSU jobs and Ole Miss does not allow him to coach in the playoffs, selection committee protocols indicate they can evaluate the team on “other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season, or likely will affect its postseason performance.”

I asked Yurachek on Tuesday night’s conference call to clarify his answer to ESPN’s Rece Davis that the committee “would not have a data point” to evaluate how different Ole Miss would be without Kiffin because they haven’t seen any Ole Miss games this season without Kiffin. The way I interpreted his comment was that the committee can’t penalize or drop Ole Miss in the rankings.

“We’ll take care of that when it happens,” Yurachek said. “I mean, we don’t look ahead. It is the loss of a player, loss of a key coach is in the principles of how we rank the teams. But again, we don’t have a data point for Ole Miss without their head coach.”

I then asked Yurachek, “It appears you won’t penalize Ole Miss without Kiffin.” Yurachek then relented that the loss of Kiffin, “could be considered by the committee.”

While the committee “could” consider the impact of a non-Kiffin-coached team, Vegas does for sure. A Circa Sports spokesman in Las Vegas said it would reduce Ole Miss’ power rating between 2-4 points.

“We’d probably have them (ranked) about 8th or 9th now,” Circa Sports told On3. “Without Kiffin, they’d probably drop into a group of a handful of teams, probably 11th-15th, but could potentially have a much lower floor.”

The Rebels are ranked No. 7 by the selection committee. If the committee dropped Ole Miss only two spots to No. 9, it would mean the Rebels would play their first round game on the road instead of at home.

The next College Football Playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday night. The final rankings will be released Sunday, Dec. 7.