On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine: Alabama fading with Arch Manning
All eyes for the next seven months until National Signing Day will be on the country’s consensus No. 1 overall prospect, New Orleans (La.) Isidore Newman quarterback Arch Manning.
The 6-foot-4, 215-pound Manning has kept an incredibly low profile in his recruitment, with neither he nor anyone from his camp giving away clues publicly about where he is leaning. After starting with five schools squarely in mind — Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ole Miss and Texas — the race has been largely whittled down to three. The Crimson Tide, Bulldogs and Longhorns each received visits from him this spring and are thought to be the contenders.
But according to the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine (RPM), the race for Manning’s commitment is shaping up to be a two-team battle between Georgia and Texas, with Alabama fading. The On3 RPM gives Texas a 44.4 percent chance of landing Manning, with Georgia (39.7%) and Alabama (15.4%) behind.
Latest On3 Intel points to Texas, Georgia leading
Those numbers line up with the most recent intel On3 Director of Recruiting Chad Simmons has received. The Crimson Tide can’t be counted out, but the other two programs are trending right now.
From Simmons’ story earlier this week:
“When talking to different sources close to this recruitment, I have started to hear more about Georgia and Texas. Alabama is still Alabama — and Nick Saban, Bill O’Brien and Pete Golding have all been involved. But there has been a little more chatter around the Bulldogs and Longhorns in recent weeks.
When examining those two programs, I am told the Mannings see two different opportunities.
One source told me, the Mannings view Kirby Smart as a personable head coach. Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken and offensive quality control staffer Buster Faulkner have built a good relationship with Manning through the process. The city of Athens is viewed as a fantastic college town by Manning as well.
One intriguing aspect surrounding Texas for Manning is the possibility of helping build a blue-blood program back to the top of college football. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian also being the offensive coordinator Arch would work with is also viewed as a positive.
“It is two great programs being looked at in two different ways,” a source said.
A commitment timeline for Manning is unknown at this time. It is also unknown if he will take official visits before committing to a program.
Arch Manning has a massive On3 NIL Valuation
As the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning and the grandson of Archie Manning, Arch has quickly become one of the biggest high school football recruits ever. Those family ties fuel the attention the Five-Star Plus+ prospect receives.
His current On3 NIL Valuation stands at $3.1 million. That is largely with no social media presence on any platform either. Only two other high school athletes currently have NIL Valuations surpassing $2 million: viral basketball sensations Bronny James and Mikey Williams.
In the On3 NIL 100, which includes high school and college football and men’s basketball players, Manning is No. 3. He only sits behind James and Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Bryce Young.
The On3 NIL Valuation is an index that looks to set the standard market value for both high school and college-level athletes. The NIL valuation is not a tracker of the value of NIL deals an athlete has completed to date. Instead, it signifies an athlete’s value at a certain moment in time.
The NIL valuation is comprised of a number of dynamic data points that focus on two primary factors – an athlete’s social media presence and their level of athletic performance.