Outlining college football teams on upset alert in Week 4

One given about college football is that no one is safe on any given week. Josh Pate has outlined six teams that could possibly be on upset alert this weekend during Thursday night’s edition of ‘Josh Pate’s College Football Show.’

Of the six teams that Pate put on upset alert last weekend (No. 19 Alabama, No. 17 Ole Miss, No. 5 Miami, USC, No. 11 South Carolina and No. 13 Oklahoma), just one team (South Carolina) was upset (Vanderbilt). Will that happen again this weekend?

All betting spreads are courtesy of BetMGM.

Syracuse at Clemson (-16.5)

For just the second time at Clemson during the Dabo Swinney era (and first time since 2014), the Tigers are 1-2 to kick off the season. Both losses have come by one possession, with the opposing teams (LSU and Georgia Tech) winning the game at the very end. Clemson hosts 2-1 Syracuse this weekend in what is considered a get-right game for the Tigers.

“The only thing worse than 1-2 is 1-3, so we’ve gotta go find a way to win a game and we can’t put our head down and pout,” Swinney said earlier this week. “For me, I’ve had enough praise, love, hate and criticism to last three lifetimes. So, I’ll be fine. But I hurt for our team. I hurt for our team, because we just have great young men and they truly love Clemson and they love each other. They care, but in completion, there’s a winner and a loser.”

Michigan State at No. 25 USC (-18.5)

No. 25 USC jumped back into the AP Top 25 poll this week for the first time since Week 6 of last season. The Trojans have been mighty impressive through three games, as they boast blowout victories over Missouri State (73-13), Georgia Southern (59-20) and Purdue (33-17). Their offense ranks first in the country in yards per game (604.0) and ranks second in the country in points per game (55.0).

USC has clashed with Michigan State since the 1990 Sun Bowl. Dating back to 1987, the Spartans currently hold a three-game win streak over the Trojans, but the all-time series is tied at four. Michigan State is also 3-0 this season, with wins over Western Michigan (23-6), Boston College (42-40) and Youngstown State (41-24).

No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana (-6.5)

This weekend’s clash between No. 9 Illinois and No. 19 Indiana is massive for potential Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff implications. Just like the Hoosiers did last year, the winner of this game could be in the driver’s seat to earn the fourth and final Big Ten bid in the 2025 College Football Playoff.

Both programs enter the matchup with an unblemished 3-0 record, although competition has not been particularly strong for either team. Indiana‘s exciting offense (which is averaging 591.7 yards per game) will be meeting a stronghold in Illinois‘ defense, which has held two of its three opponents this season to three or fewer points.

Tulane at No. 13 Ole Miss (-12.5)

One of the more intriguing matchups of Saturday’s Week 4 slate will pit Tulane against No. 13 Ole Miss in Oxford. The Rebels have started the season strong with wins over Kentucky and Arkansas to open SEC play with a perfect 2-0 record. Tulane has also opened strong, notching wins over Power Four teams Duke and Northwestern as it looks to wrap up the G5 bid in the College Football Playoff this season.

The teams last met in 2023, when Ole Miss was ranked No. 20 in the AP Poll and Tulane was ranked No. 24. Lane Kiffin‘s Rebels downed the Green Wave 37-20 on the road, but head coach Willie Fritz is no longer in charge of the program. Jon Sumrall has run the ship for the past two seasons, leading Tulane to a 12-5 record in 17 games.

Georgia State at No. 20 Vanderbilt (-27.5)

This weekend’s home game against Georgia State is extremely personal for Clark Lea and his now-No. 20-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores, as the Panthers upset the ‘Dores 36-32 in Atlanta last season. Following that embarrassing loss, Vanderbilt upset No. 1 Alabama three weeks later and completely turned its season around.

Since the loss to Georgia State, Vandy is 8-5 (dating back to last season) with strong wins over aforementioned No. 1 Alabama, Auburn, Georgia Tech (Birmingham Bowl) and No. 11 South Carolina last Saturday. This weekend serves as a stepping stone that could launch Vanderbilt inside the Top 20 of the AP Rankings for the first time since Oct. 2008.

South Carolina at No. 23 Missouri (-9.5)

Speaking of South Carolina, the Gamecocks tumbled out of the AP Top 25 Rankings this week following a disastrous 31-7 loss to Vanderbilt at home last Saturday. Star quarterback LaNorris Sellers exited the game near the end of the first half (with the Gamecocks trailing 14-7) and never returned, leading to the blowout loss.

Sellers, however, was upgraded to PROBABLE on Thursday night’s availability report, clearing the way for him to return this weekend. He enjoyed his best game of the 2024 season against Missouri, passing for 353 yards and five touchdowns in a 34-30 win. Although the Tigers have started strong this season under Eli Drinkwitz, Sellers’ presence makes this game a lot closer than the 9.5 spread would indicate.

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