Rece Davis, Pete Thamel make conflicting picks on Vanderbilt at Texas

The SEC has a few games this weekend between AP Top 25 teams this weekend. That includes the trip the Vanderbilt Commodores are making to Austin, hoping to give the Texas Longhorns their third loss of the season and a second SEC loss.

Ahead of the game, Pete Thamel and Rece Davis shared their picks for the game. Thamel is on Vanderbilt, going in and getting that win. Davis disagrees, though, and expects the Longhorns to win a close game. It was also a game that the two got into a debate about on the College GameDay Podcast this week.

“There couldn’t be more of a dichotomy at quarterbacks and their paths — assuming Arch Manning plays — than Arch Manning and Diego Pavia,” Davis said. “In terms of how they’ve arrived at this point, this moment on this big November stage. Who do you like? Texas is a slight favorite at last check.”

The major question is the health of Arch Manning. In concussion protocol after getting injured last Saturday, Manning was listed as questionable on the Wednesday availability report. So, that’s up in the air. If he can’t go, it would likely be Matthew Caldwell in his place.

“It will be interesting to see as Arch goes through concussion protocol as Arch goes through this on Wednesday,” Thamel said. “If we end up seeing Matthew Caldwell, the Troy transfer. He had another cameo late in a game where he came in and zipped a pass… It was Florida. He looked great. Again, the very limited times we’ve seen him in high leverage situations, he has looked great… Just from the macro, is Arch Manning the quarterback at Texas next year? I think that’s a fascinating philosophical question as we sit here. Because it’s certainly not a no-brainer answer that it’s yes at this point.”

That was an idea that Davis quickly disagreed with. He argued that he expects to see Manning back next season, along with an improved cast around him. It’s that supporting cast, including a weak offensive line, that has Thamel picking Vanderbilt.

“The pieces haven’t fit for Texas this year,” Thamel said. “There’s just no other way to say it. So, I’m going to take Pavia on the road. Let’s go. Why not at this point? I’ve picked against them too much. Yeah. I think old Diego can go and roll there.”

Davis would agree that there’s a lot to like about how Vanderbilt has played this season and a reason for concern when it comes to Texas. However, he’s still picking the Longhorns. He’s doing so on the back of what has proven to be an excellent defense there too.

“I think the game will be very much like the Missouri game. I think it’ll be low scoring. Do you make the clutch plays? One of the compelling things that I love about Vanderbilt, they made the play when it mattered… In a season in which the margins are razor-thin, Vanderbilt has made plays to win games. Texas has been looser,” Davis said. “But I’m going to ride with the Texas defense. I think the Texas defense slows down Pavia and the Vanderbilt offense, much in the same way that Missouri did last week. They held them to under 250 yards, I think. So, I’ll ride with the Texas defense and say that the Longhorns win a game in which neither team reaches 20 points. So, one difference between us there. Defensive game.”

Texas enters the game 6-2 overall and 3-1 in SEC play. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is 7-1 overall and 3-1 in SEC play, making this a vital game in the SEC race. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. EST on Saturday.