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Upset Alert: Which college football teams could be in danger of falling in Week 5

IMG_0985by: Griffin McVeigh09/25/25griffin_mcveigh

Similar to the NFL, ‘Any Given Saturday’ is becoming a more popular trend across college football. Plenty of teams appear to be in danger of getting upset in Week 5. Josh Pate decided to highlight five of them on Thursday during Josh Pate’s College Football Show.

As usual, Pate used the Upset Alert Meter to show where he stands on games. Scaling from one to 10, there are a few matchups lower on the scale in this edition. However, one does get all the way up for nine, potentially sounding some alarm bells.

All betting spreads are courtesy of BetMGM.

USC at Illinois (+6.5)

Pate is going “no higher” than 6.5 on the Upset Alert Meter in this one. USC is fresh off a large win against Michigan State, while Illinois let up a massive number vs. Indiana. Last Saturday could not have gone quite differently.

Now, the Trojans are a road favorite over a team that entered the year with a good chunk of preseason hype. Lincoln Riley wants to keep the train rolling in Los Angeles and needs to be careful heading East.

Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (+14)

Georgia Tech HC Brent Key
© Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech heads on the road for the second time this season but first during ACC play. Brent Key‘s squad gets two touchdowns over Wake Forest, something Pate describes as “The Robby Ashford experience.”

Even so, he is not too worried about the Yellow Jackets here. The Upset Alert Meter sits at 4.5, keeping one eye on the game throughout the loaded slate.

Kentucky at South Carolina (-5.5)

Looking at the spread, Pate’s first reaction was “a lot” of points were being given to Kentucky. His main concern lies with the South Carolina offense, ranking among the worst teams out there when it comes to total yards.

The Upset Alert Meter sits at nine in this one. Pate sees a world where Mark Stoops comes out with a massive win for Kentucky, going on the road to beat South Carolina. Maybe not the highest-stakes SEC game on the calendar but Pate is alert.

Ohio State at Washington (+8)

For the first time since 2007, Ohio State heads to Seattle. This time, they face Washington in a Big Ten contest, something fans of the two programs may not have believed 18 years ago.

However, both teams are undefeated in this one. Washington is a single-digit underdog at home, maybe raising a few eyebrows. Josh Pate rates this a six Upset Alert Meter ahead of the 3:30/12:30 ET/PT kickoff.

Florida State at Virginia (+7)

Florida State upset Alabama in Week 1 before coasting to wins in its next two games + a bye week. Now, another power conference team lines up across them with a Friday night tilt in Charlottesville.

Pate highlighted Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos, wondering if we get the same elite level play we saw vs. Bama. Or will he play closer to what the floor might look like? Leaning toward the former, Pate put this game at a five in the Upset Alert Meter.


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