Upset Alert: Which college football teams could be in danger of falling in Week 9

The final college football Saturday in October is finally here. Moods around programs change around this time of year, especially if surprising results come in. Some teams drop games they likely should not have, while others get a nice jolt due to an upset.

Josh Pate outlined a few that could occur over Week 9 on Thursday’s Josh Pate’s College Football Show. He brought out the Upset Alert Meter to give his thoughts on six games to watch for. Spanning as low as three and as high as e8.5, some drama could unfold on Saturday.

All betting spreads are courtesy of BetMGM.

Alabama at South Carolina (+11.5)

“South Carolina is not going to outscore them, of course,” Pate said. “But what could happen here? Something crazy. Alabama hasn’t turned the ball over a lot. What if they were -3 in turnovers? South Carolina could return a kick for a touchdown. That’s how that would happen.”

There is not much confidence in what the South Carolina offense might be able to produce from Pate. Other areas would need to step up to pull off this one, meaning the Upset Alert Meter sits at five.

Minnesota at Iowa (-8.5)

“Minnesota outphysicaled Nebraska last week,” Pate said. “There’s no mystery, that’s how they won that game. Not going to, probably, outphysical Iowa, but they could beat them.”

Playing spoiler two weeks in a row fits right into what PJ Fleck wants out of his team. A good opportunity awaits in Iowa City, having a six on the Upset Alert Meter.

UCLA at Indiana (-24.5)

“When you have a dynamic presence like they do at quarterback, you’ve always got a shot,” Pate said. “UCLA has got a shot. It’s not unfamiliar territory for them to be three-plus touchdown favorites underdogs and win. They’ve done it already to Penn State.”

Initially, Pate wanted to place this one as a five. As mentioned, it’s a scenario we saw play out not too long ago, although the Penn State win took place at home. But Pate switched to a three, just to say he warned us if there is an upset.

Texas at Mississippi State (+7)

“Can you even ride a defense all year long?” Pate asked. “Or is there that one week where it just has a hiccup. Not a total no-show but a hiccup. I’m worried about Texas, now and beyond.”

Texas might be continuing to find its offense but in Pate’s mind, we already know what they are. It’s the second leg of back-to-back road games for the Longhorns against a Mississippi State team that can put some explosive plays together. Not a good recipe if the defense is off, meaning the Upset Alert Meter comes in at a sky-high 8.5.

Syracuse at Georgia Tech (-17.5)

“You could make the argument Georgia Tech got outplayed by Wake Forest,” Pate said. “Got outplayed by Duke last week. Does it matter? No, they won the games. But from a predictive standpoint, I don’t care if Cuse has a backup quarterback.”

Georgia Tech currently finds its ranking inside the top-10, a spot Pate believes they earned. Wins are coming in different kinds of fashions, even producing some nervous moments. He leans against one taking place in Atlanta against Syracuse, putting the Upset Alert Meter at four.

Tennessee at Kentucky (+9)

“I think that Kentucky is much different at home than on the road,” Pate said. “They’ve gone on the road this year, they’ve gotten beat by Georgia soundly. They’ve gotten beat by South Carolina soundly. But home? They took Ole Miss to the limit, they took Texas to overtime.”

Kroger Field is the biggest factor here for Pate. Tennessee is another team facing a second straight road game, fresh off the Alabama loss. Could a let-down spot be here for the Vols? It’s possible per Pate, coming in at a 6.5 on the Upset Alert Meter.

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