Mel Kiper makes definitive statement on Arch Manning's place in 2026 NFL Draft class

Mel Kiper Jr.‘s Big Board ranking of the upcoming NFL Draft class is an annual must-read for all NFL fans and draftniks. But when ESPN’s longtime draft prognosticator ultimately releases his list of the top prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft later this year, one prominent name will be noticably absent: Texas redshirt sophomore quarterback Arch Manning.

Kiper announced Wednesday on ESPN’s First Draft that he will not include Manning, the much-ballyhooed nephew of former superstar NFL quarterbacks Eli and Peyton Manning, on any of his 2026 draft rankings. Kiper also advised the first-year Longhorns starter to forgo next year’s draft and return to Austin for the 2026 college football season.

“I’m not (recommending him) coming out after one season. History tells us you shouldn’t. I’d want (him) to go through a year where he’s the guy, and you see that alpha, you see the guy (have) a command of the offense, (he’s) got a command of college football,” Kiper said Wednesday on ESPN2 “… He’s (still) trying to figure it out, and if you’re tying to figure out college, you’re not going to the NFL in April. Forget about it. He’s back at Texas for Year 2 (as a starter) next season.

“He’s not going to be on any of my big boards, he’s not going to be on any of my Top 10 positional analysis coming out. On my rankings, he will not appear. Now if he decides in January to come out, I’ll put him in then. But he’s not going to be on my Big Board, he needs to go back for 2026.”

Manning has taken plenty of criticism from fans and media alike after not necessarily impressing in his first two starts as Texas’ QB1 despite entering the 2025 college football season as the betting favorite to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy.

That includes ESPN firebrand Paul Finebaum, a noted Manning superfan who helped elevate the preseason hype around the scion of the first family of football.

Paul Finebaum flips script, pumps brakes on Arch Manning hype after ‘pedestrian’ two weeks

Perhaps no college football analyst had a higher opinion of Texas QB Arch Manning coming into the 2025 season than ESPN’s Paul Finebaum. However, even Finebaum is now taking a step back now after Manning’s first two games of this season.

Appearing on ESPN’s First Take on Tuesday, Finebaum walked back previous comments about the Longhorns’ quarterback, and admitted that much of the national media — himself included — might have gotten ahead of themselves with their Manning infatuation.

“I have been leading the parade on Arch Manning. We all know that. I’m backing up a little bit. I am not that impressed,” Finebaum said on Tuesday morning’s First Take on ESPN. “The bottom line is Arch Manning is not playing like an elite quarterback. He’s barely playing like a pedestrian quarterback. He had some good plays in that game (against San José State), but that game doesn’t mean anything and he’s not going to really get a chance for a couple of weeks. But, ultimately, you know, I think we all jumped the gun.

“Is he in the Heisman race? No. Arch Manning is not in the Heisman race as of today.”

— On3’s Sam Gillenwater contributed to this report.