NFL analytics expert predicts Washington Commanders 2024 win total

There’s every reason for fans of the Commanders to get excited for the fall. There’s a new coach, offensive coordinator and a highly touted rookie quarterback. Check, check and check.

But this fall might not be the season where Washington turns around its fortunes despite having Dan Quinn, Kliff Kingsbury and Jayden Daniels.

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert with NFL Network, projects the Commanders to win 7.2 games. And she’s more optimistic than most oddsmakers.

She recently broke down projected win totals for all 32 teams. Frelund didn’t have the best news for the Commanders, other than they should be at least three victories better than last season. She based her formula on a mixture of stats, history and trends. Numbers don’t lie, at least until the season starts, then those numbers become obsolete.

Frelund explained how she created the predictions.

“Using the projected 53-man rosters as of May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.

She also noted “remember, these simulations account for many contextualized data points that have been proven to correlate to wins and losses based on historical football games that were actually played.”

Odds and predictions for Washington Commanders

• Win Total: over 6.5 (-120)
• Make Playoffs: +290
• Win Division: +900
• Win Conference: +5000
• Win Super Bowl: +12500

Frelund says of Washington:

“Commanders fans should be excited about a number of shrewd moves and draft picks, but I particularly loved what the new regime did at the linebacker position. Free-agent additions Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu both ranked in the top 15 in defensive stops last season. I expect these two veteran studs to help this rebuilding team get through some early schedule challenges. Washington faces its toughest four-game stretch of the season in Weeks 3 through 6: at Cincinnati (MNF), at Arizona, vs. Cleveland, at Baltimore.”

The Commanders also selected Daniels, the former LSU star who won last year’s Heisman, with the No. 2 pick of the draft. No doubt, he’ll shoulder all the expectations of the franchise. Former Heisman winner Marcus Mariota is the backup. Kingsbury, who has worked with dual-threat quarterbacks for much of his coaching career, probably is the best mentor for Daniels.

And Washington also made some free agency moves to help out Daniels. The Commanders brought in former Chargers running back Austin Ekeler, who can run and catch the ball. Then there’s tight end Zach Ertz.

Overall, Frelund placed the 49ers as the top team in the NFC with a projection of 11.2 wins. San Fran is a smidge ahead of the Eagles, with 11.1 wins. She believes the Lions will be third with 10.6 wins and the Falcons fourth with 9.9. After all, they have a new head coach (Raheem Morris) and new quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Meanwhile, the final three playoff teams predicted in this early look at 2024 are the Packers at 9.8 wins, Rams at 9.2 and the Cowboys at 9.1. So Frelund projects the Commanders will be third in the NFC East behind the Eagles and Cowboys. But maybe they’ll be competitive.

You can check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. And check out On3.com’s NFL coverage here.