NFL analytics expert projects New England Patriots win total for 2024 season

It’s a new era for the New England Patriots with Jerod Mayo replacing Bill Belichick as head coach and the team selecting Drake Maye to be its next franchise quarterback.

With that, it’s a rebuilding season in New England, and not a ton is expected out of the team in 2024. Cynthia Frelund, an expert for the NFL Network, agrees with that sentiment. She is currently projecting a win total of just 4.5 games for the Patriots in the 2024 season.

“The new regime and new QB in New England are projected to have an extremely difficult start to the 2024 season,” Cynthia Frelund wrote.

“After opening the campaign in Cincinnati, the Pats host the Seahawks before facing the Jets and 49ers on the road. While their next two games are at Foxborough, they’re against two playoff teams from last year — Miami and Houston. The good news? My models forecast significant improvement from Jerod Mayo’s group as the season goes on, especially with key defensive pieces coming back from injury.”

Along with a win total of 4.5 games, Frelund is giving the Patriots +900 odds to make the playoffs, +2800 odds to win the division, +8000 to win the AFC, and massive +17500 odds to win the Super Bowl.

That win total is the lowest in the AFC East, signaling it could be another long season for what was once the dominant team of its division.

Jacoby Brissett on role as mentor for Drake Maye, Patriots

The New England Patriots are looking to Drake Maye in the future, but they also brought in Jacoby Brissett to mentor him and potentially lead the team in the short term. It’s a unique role for Brissett but one that he’s embracing.

“When I was here the first time, you realize everybody’s your mentor that’s older than you in this league or has more experience, and I hope I’m that for more than just Drake. I’m a teammate first. I can be a good teammate to not only [Maye] but to everybody on this team,” Brissett said.

“I’m excited to work with him. I remember when I was following Tom [Brady] around. He’s already texting me about plays and how I think about things and cadence – all the little nuances of being in this position at this level.”

This is Brissett’s second tenure with the New England Patriots. He was previously caught up behind Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo on the depth chart. After that, he bounced between four different teams and started 46 games in his time away from New England.