NFL Draft analyst breaks down first-round potential for Ty Simpson after combine

Ty Simpson left scouts impressed with his performance at the 2026 NFL Scouting Combine on Saturday. But did he cement himself as a first-round draftee?

According to ESPN’s Matt Miller, the NFL Draft analyst believes Simpson could be selected as high as No. 11 overall to the Miami Dolphins. Though, it’s not a forgone conclusion just yet.

“We know there’s some conversation about Tua (Tagovailoa) maybe not being the pick for Jeff Hafley and the new front office in Miami, but there’s a long way to go before Simpson has cemented himself as a round one lock,” Miller explained during SportsCenter on Sunday morning. “Yes, there are a lot of teams that need quarterbacks. It only takes one team to pull the trigger early. We’ve seen that in the past.”

The passing drills were where Simpson shined, impressing scouts with his arm talent and accuracy. Whether he’s solidified himself as the true QB2 in the upcoming draft behind Fernando Mendoza, for now, remains to be seen.

Miller named Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix as examples of standout college QBs taken higher than expected in the first round simply due to team need. That’s where Simpson’s at right now, Miller said.

This comes after Simpson had a strong redshirt junior season with the Crimson Tide. However, it was his only season as a starting QB at the collegiate level.

He still finished the year with 3,567 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and five interceptions during his first season as the Crimson Tide’s starting quarterback. He helped lead Alabama to its first College Football Playoff under head coach Kalen DeBoer this past season, which ended in the Rose Bowl vs. eventual national champion Indiana.

Alabama finished the 2025 season with an 11-4 season under his guidance. Along the way, they became the first team with three regular season losses to secure an at-large bid into the College Football Playoff.

Before college, Simpson was a five-star recruit, per the Rivals Industry Rankings, which is a proprietary algorithm that compiles ratings and rankings from all four primary recruiting media services. He was the No. 25 recruit overall in the 2022 recruiting class and No. 2 quarterback during the cycle.