Alabama football's remaining games ranked by win probability
Alabama football is 7-1 (4-1 SEC) so far this year, which means yet another College Football Playoff berth is still within reach. The Crimson Tide are currently on their bye week, but then it’s a four-game stretch to end the regular season. Three of those will be in-conference matchups, too.
That stretch is where Alabama’s focus should be.
Then, if it can get through that unphased, then we start discussing what a potential win against Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC Championship Game might look like. Using ESPN’s Football Power Index’s win percentages, here’s how the rest of the games on the schedule rank with thoughts on each contest.
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1. LSU in Baton Rouge, La. (Nov. 5)
FPI Predictor: 75.7% chance of victory
Analysis: According to the FPI, this is Alabama’s toughest remaining regular season game on the schedule. There are two reasons for that: 1) it’s a rivalry game at night in Baton Rouge and 2) the Tigers just soundly defeated the next opponent on this list by more than three scores. With that said, the Crimson Tide are still the heavy favorites in this game.
LSU is clearly heading in the right direction under first-year coach Brian Kelly. After beginning the year with a one-point loss in the season opener against Florida State, the Tigers are 6-1 with the lone other loss being to an undefeated Tennessee, who currently ranks No. 3 in the AP Poll.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels continues to get more comfortable running the offense with each passing week, which will make the dual-threat option a difficult test for Alabama’s defense. The offensive line has been an issue, however. Can Alabama’s pass rush put enough pressure on Daniels to force a couple of mistakes? We’ll find out soon enough.
2. Ole Miss in Oxford, Miss. (Nov. 12)
FPI Predictor: 76.5% chance of victory
Analysis: Part of me still believes that this should be the toughest remaining game on Alabama’s schedule. Why? Well, because this matchup will immediately follow a tough, hard-fought night game against an ever-improving LSU squad. Plus, Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin has at least some experience going toe-to-toe with Nick Saban.
Still, the FPI disagrees.
The Rebels started the year with a 7-0 record and top-10 ranking, but that all fell apart when they got dismantled 45-20 by LSU this past Saturday. With another road game coming up against a Texas A&M squad that has its back against the wall, I wouldn’t be shocked if Kiffin and company are 7-2 with the Tide rolling into town.
Star running back Zach Evans (668 total yards, 8 touchdowns) was held out of the LSU game, but we’re unsure of what his status will be in two weeks. The Ole Miss offense is built around the rushing tandem of Evans and true freshman Quinshon Judkins (900 total yards, 13 touchdowns), but USC transfer Jaxson Dart provides some complementary play at quarterback.
3. Auburn in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (Nov. 26)
FPI Predictor: 95.9% chance of victory
Analysis: Yeah, things aren’t looking great for Bryan Harsin and the Auburn Tigers. They started the year with a 3-1 record with the only loss coming to a top-15 Penn State team, but they since dropped three straight. Granted, those defeats have come at the hands of LSU, Georgia and Ole Miss, all of which are top 18 squads.
Combine all of this information, and the FPI is only giving a 4.1% chance of pulling off the upset.
For what’s supposed to be one of the greatest rivalries in college football, I wouldn’t say that’s a good look. Still, the Tigers did cause Alabama issues last year, as they almost walked away with a home upset. That crowd and home field advantage at Jordan-Hare won’t be there to help them this time around though.
Right now, it’s easy to say that offense is built around the run game.
The combination of running backs Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter, as well as quarterback Robby Ashford, have posted 1,073 yards and 13 scores on the ground so far this year. Unfortunately, that’s only good for No. 55 in the nation as far as rushing offense. Alabama currently fields the No. 10 run defense, allowing only 93.9 yards per game.
4. Austin Peay in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (Nov. 19)
FPI Predictor: 99.6% chance of victory
Analysis: Well, at least Austin Peay is getting a good pay day out of their trip to Tuscaloosa. The FPI couldn’t have their chances of victory much lower in this game, but I guess anything can happen. The Governors do have a 5-2 record and are ranked third in the ASUN Conference, formerly known as the Atlantic Sun Conference.
Those two losses have come to Western Kentucky (38-27) and Central Arkansas (49-20).
If there’s one thing to know about Austin Peay, it’s that their quarterback Mike DiLiello is actually pretty good. In seven games, he’s totaled 1,959 yards (1,622 passing, 337 rushing) and 24 touchdowns (17 passing, 7 rushing) while only tossing six interceptions. The former Middle Tennessee State quarterback has been sacked 19 times, however.
I won’t feed into the rat poison too much, so I’ll just leave it as the game before the Iron Bowl.
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