Kentucky Football’s Goals vs. Alabama
This game felt different in the preseason. Kentucky garnered summertime praise and was listed as one of the potential risers in the SEC. Alabama was doubted due to the void of a proven QB1 and faced with replacing the nation’s best offensive and defensive players. The Cats started strong but sputtered in October after three consecutive losses. Alabama experienced early-season struggles including a loss to Texas and some lackluster outings.
Recent times indicate that Nick Saban has figured it out. His Crimson Tide team is one of the hottest in the land and his quarterback is playing better than anyone else’s. And here we are in November and Bama is yet again hunting for another SEC West title and has an outside shot at the College Football Playoff. A win in Lexington would give Alabama the West crown and a certain date with Georgia in Atlanta.
Kentucky’s winning ways resurfaced after a dreadful October. Mark Stoops’ squad traveled to Starkville and got the W against Mississippi State, a must-win at a place where they had lost six straight. With bowl eligibility in hand, the Wildcats are faced with an opportunity to shock the college football world with a win over the ever-powerful Crimson Tide.
The Cats are double-digit underdogs as expected. There are several considerations that are going to need to break in UK’s favor in order to pull off the Kroger Field upset. Let’s get into goals.
OFFENSE
Quarterback Devin Leary is presumably healthy and will be full-go on Saturday. The senior left the Mississippi State game in the second half due to an apparent injury. The unsureness of his status left the BBN anxious going into the beginning of the week.
Kentucky has figured out the passing game as of late. Leary has shown the pocket traits that had many excited. His supporting cast has supported him as drops have mostly departed. But, pass protection was not exactly stellar in Starkville where the Bulldogs registered a 48% pressure rate. That’s not ideal with Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell coming to town.
The Wildcat rushing attack has fallen on hard times as of late. Both Tennessee and Mississippi State loaded up the box in order to limit Ray Davis’ production. That strategy has fairly worked. Davis’ 3.8 yards per attempt average vs. MSU highlighted the road opponent’s focus and the Cats’ inability to create running lanes. This was troubling and led to Mark Stoops’ ire.
Nick Saban’s defense is only giving up 18 points per game. That number is ranked second in the SEC. Bama has pros littered all through their defensive two-deep. A couple of defenders jump off the stat sheet in terms of getting after the passer. First is Dallas Turner. The linebacker leads the SEC with 38 QB pressures. He’s also registered 38 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, and 8 QB sacks. Turner is physical and an attacking defender who specializes in explosive plays across the line of scrimmage.
Chris Braswell plays the Jack position and is nearly as lethal as Turner. His 37 QB pressures rank second in the conference just one shy of Turner. The senior has also recorded 34 stops, 9 TFLs, and 6.5 QB sacks. Containing or blocking that duo will be a substantial challenge for Liam Coen’s offense.
True freshman Caleb Downs is more than a rising star in the conference. The strong safety has already arrived and playing at an elite level. Downs leads the Crimson Tide with 76 tackles. The next highest tackler has 52 for context purposes. He’s also contributed 2 interceptions. There are pros at all three levels in this defense. All-American cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry is a danger on certain pass downs. Kentucky will have to do a bunch right in order to score points on Saturday. Let’s get into goals.
Run the Football
Alabama is allowing 120 rush yards per outing. It must be noted that the Crimson Tide has played a demanding schedule against multiple ranked opponents. The Cats have not excelled on the ground as of late. Stoops will need Ray Davis to have a monster showing to have a chance. I’m setting the team rushing total number at 150.
Protect Leary
Mississippi State enjoyed a 48% pressure rate against Kentucky last Saturday. No offense to MSU, but this week’s level of Dudes that will be hunting Leary will be on a whole different level.
The Big Blue Wall needed a wake-up call after last week; Mark Stoops obliged. Plus, nothing grabs attention better than the crimson helmets with numbers on the side and plain uniforms on a team that’s led by the game’s most legendary head coach visiting your home field. To have a chance, Leary must be protected. Can’t give up more than 3 sacks and a 28% pressure rate in this one.
DEFENSE
Got to give credit where credit is due: the Kentucky defense played much, much better against Mississippi State than it did at any time in October. Tackling, minus the 88-yard drive, was improved and the Cats had the upper hand along the line of scrimmage. This week will require more advancements in all three levels.
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe is one of the most dangerous and exciting players in the nation. Alabama has averaged 32 points and 6.2 yards per play since he was solidified as QB1. Milroe can hurt opponents with his arm or legs. This was highlighted in last week’s 42-28 win over LSU. The QB ran for 155 and passed for 219 against the Tigers. He will be a handful on Saturday. It might be argued that Milroe is the nation’s top performer over the past few weeks.
The Alabama offensive line has not been the dominant force that was a staple in prior championship teams. The Tide has allowed 37 QB sacks which ranks last in the SEC. Bama is running for 163, throwing for 219 yards per outing, and converting 48% on third down. What this team does well is explode which is evident by a 10.4 yards per pass attempt number. Milroe has contributed to 12 completions of 40+ yards. This team will swing for the fences and frequently connects with the long ball. Here are my goals.
Smartly Rush the Quarterback
Defending Jalen Milroe offers a “darned if you do, darned if you don’t” approach. Defenses that rush too far upfield too fast are getting burned after the QB tucks and runs. The edges were solidified a week ago vs. MSU, that must be the same on Saturday. In all, keeping Milroe in the pocket and not letting the playmaker run the football will be a priority.
Don’t Get Beat Deep
See above 10.4 yards per pass attempt. This is a vertical, big-play offense. WR Jermaine Burton is averaging 21 yards per catch. Isaiah Bond is right at 15. Expect Saban’s offense to get vertical against the Wildcats. UK can’t give up the homerun ball and keep the yards per attempt number under double digits.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Upsets normally require a team to have an advantage in the turnover margin and on special teams. This game will be no different. Alabama has a significant third-phase advantage on paper. Punter James Burnip is averaging 48 yards per boot and kicker Will Reichard is one of the best in the country. Returner Kool-Aid McKinstry is a threat any time he touches the football. Much like the other two phases, there will need to be a lot of good to be done in order to get the W.
Kentucky’s punt team may be active in this one. The Cats can’t endure another poor punting performance and expect to come close to winning the field position game with Burnip’s 48-yard average. Here are the goals.
Create a Turnover or Score
It may take something extraordinary to win the game. No better place to start than on special teams. It won’t be easy. As expected, this is a very well-coached team. But, a turnover or score would do wonders for a potential, positive outcome.
WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?
2023 may be one of Nick Saban’s finest coaching jobs. His team has stayed the course after an early season loss to Texas and is one of the nation’s hottest teams in November. Kentucky started the month off right with a win at Mississippi State.
There are several factors that should provide the Crimson Tide with ample motivation on Saturday. First, a win over Kentucky would clinch the SEC West title. The visitors will also be looking to add style points in the eyes of voters and the Playoff Committee. There are also indicators that this could be a letdown game for the Tide. Alabama is coming off a couple of hard-fought victories over rivals, the noon kickoff works to Kentucky’s advantage for a change, and the Crimson Tide has not been overwhelming on the road.
Can Kentucky shock the college football world? We’ll see. Nothing is impossible nor should a Wildcat loss be certain prior to kickoff. This is a very good Alabama team but not the juggernaut that steamrolls opponents like those Saban put on the field during multiple national title runs.
Anything can happen. Kentucky will need to play their best game of the year in order to earn a win over the historic program. The contest will also require something extraordinary to go in UK’s favor. This could come in the form of a special team’s turnover or a score. Additionally, Kentucky needs to register explosives for points on both offense and defense.
Nothing to sugarcoat here. The Tide has a significant advantage on paper. But, the game is played on artificial turf. Mark Stoops will honor his seniors prior to kickoff. Emotions will be high for all things blue and white prior to kickoff. The last time we saw the Cats play an SEC opponent at noon worked out quite well when Kentucky whipped up on the Gators.
To be the best you gotta beat the best. Or so they say. Alabama offers an opportunity. A chance is all that you can ask for in college football.
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