The Volunteers, a Shark & the Crossroads: Kentucky's Goals vs. Tennessee
The Tennessee Volunteers will embark on their northward expedition to Lexington this weekend. The Cats-Vols gridiron hate fest was once the most impassioned rivalry game on the slate. Times have changed, for some. Now the Louisville Cardinals appear to be the most loathed opponent, for some. Largely based on geography and age, a portion of the Big Blue Nation still considers Tennessee to be their favorite team’s most villainous foe. I fit in that category.
The lopsided history of the matchup and the ramifications of the final result serve as conversational fodder for 364 days. The Orange has gotten the better of the blue to the tune of 82-26-9. Ouch. The Wildcat faithful’s yearly optimism for a triumph is as much of a tradition as the Beer Barrel or the Power K. Both of which have seemingly been eternally retired. But, the rivalry and faith live on.
The 2023 Cats and Vols have both disappointed. Tennessee had dreams of the College Football Playoff. Those visions were derailed following road losses to Florida and Alabama. Kentucky is coming off a bye week after two self-inflicted, embarrassing losses to Georgia and Missouri. The Cats haven’t exactly been stellar following an off-weekend. Thus, Saturday is a crossroads contest for both sides. The victor can repair damaged egos and spirits both within and outside the locker room. The loser, well, let’s just say that the season won’t exactly be remembered with blissful fondness and bowl eligibility comes into play. Let’s get into the on-field matchup.
OFFENSE
The Kentucky offense has not lived up to expectations in 2023. There’s no other way to provide credible analysis unless that’s an agreed-upon summation. Quarterback Devin Leary entered the 2023 campaign ranked as the nation’s top transfer signal caller. It’s sufficient enough to say that the Wildcats’ passing attack has yet to leave the Kroger Field turf. That result is not just on the passer.
Leary has a 12.5 drop rate. The UK pass catcher has dropped 15+ passes. Additionally, the Cats have created a pattern of stringing three and outs together once any sign of adversity is thrown in their direction. Scoring and first-down famines have come in bunches and dearly cost the Big Blue yardage, points, and games over its most recent two outings.
Not all is bad. Ray Davis has been brilliant. The Mid-Year All-American is leading the SEC by averaging 112 yards per game. The remarkable aspect of his lofty status is that the prized transfer is only running the football 15 times per contest. He is however active in the passing game. Davis’ offensive line was an enormous question mark going into the season. I’d argue that outside the RB, the Big Blue Wall has provided the only other consistent position grouping through seven games.
Mark Stoops indicated that he is going to stick with the forward pass in order for his program to grow in the right direction. That briefs well, but Tennessee will have something to say about that on Saturday. The Volunteers’ front seven is downright nasty and backed by one of the top defenders in the SEC, LB Aaron Beasley. James Pearce Jr. is a certified Dude. The DE has recorded 7 QB sacks and 33 pressures. We’ll get into that in a minute.
The Vols rank third in the league after giving up just 19 points per contest. Opponents are rushing for 110 and throwing for 210 yards per clip. UT excels in producing havoc. This is a significant concern I have for Saturday. The Orange has accumulated the second most QB sacks and tackles for loss in the SEC with 28 and 57 respectively. Total team QB pressures are even more daunting. Those numbers don’t exactly bode well for the home team. Here are my goals for the game.
Get and Stay Ahead of the Chains
See above regarding havoc. Kentucky’s average third-down distance to cover in 2023 is over 9 yards. Let’s be honest here. Kentucky will have zero chance for a victory if it lives in 3rd and 9. Zero. First and second-down plays are going to be vital in this one. Success in early downs is non-negotiable. The non-conference portion of the season saw offensive success that was mainly driven by explosive plays. I did not think that would stick against SEC competition. Unfortunately, I have been proven correct, especially in the two most recent nightmares. Mini wins on early downs will move the chains and impact the game’s outcome. I understand the need to pass. But again, 3rd and 9+s won’t get it done on Saturday.
No Bad Stretches
The Georgia game rattled me. The Missouri game disturbed me and has been a cause for a pause. I’m just putting that out there. The Cats’ offense threw out three three-and-outs, an interception, and a turnover on downs following the game’s third series that resulted in a punt. These stretches of not-good offensive football have been far too common in 2023.
Coordinator Liam Coen’s opening game scripts have been a thing of beauty. After that, struggle may be a complimentary word when describing UK’s offense against Missouri and Georgia. So, “No Bad Stretches” also means to be more efficient, balanced, and consistent throughout four quarters, not just the first period.
Don’t Get Edged
James Pearce Jr. is an excellent football player. Even though he wears a Power-T on his headgear, I’m a fan of his game. He is the best edge rusher that Kentucky will have seen so far this year. But, it’s not just him. Pearce Jr.’s seven QB sacks are tied for second in the SEC. Just below him at 7th is Tyler Baron’s 5 sacks to go along with 23 pressures. Omarr Norman-Lott and Joshua Josephs combine for six quarterback sacks. 320-pound Omari Thomas is a load on the interior. Although the Vols are 5-2 and not where many projected, that front seven is serious.
The Kentucky offensive tackles have played well in 2023. Jeremy Flax is this season’s feel-good player of the year by retaining his starting position after Stoops and company brought in a transfer from USC to take his job. He’s answered by being solid on the right side. Left tackle Marques Cox has also done his job. Both will be tested on Saturday by an attacking Tennessee defense that lives on creating havoc. Kentucky can’t surrender more than 2 sacks in this one.
DEFENSE
In many ways, this Kentucky team has been uncharacteristic. This applies to the defense as well. Brad White has produced Top-5 defenses in the SEC in each year that he’s called plays in Lexington. The Cats sit outside that mark this season by giving up 347 total yards per outing which ranks eighth. It’s also allowed 24 points per game which is currently five more than a year ago.
The Wildcat run defense will be under the microscope on Saturday. The Cats rank second in the conference by giving up 95 yards per contest. Tennessee leads the SEC by rushing for 217 per. Something’s got to give. The status of linebacker Trevin Wallace is one to monitor. White will need all his chess pieces if he’s to win the match against the potent Volunteer rushing attack.
The Vols’ passing attack has taken a backward step from the Hendon Hooker era. QB Joe Milton III was the preseason darling amongst several talking heads. The reality and season have been somewhat different. Milton III’s mostly been inaccurate and inconsistent. UT is throwing for 221 yards per game. That’s 105 fewer yards per contest than a year ago. This is not the Tennessee offense that most of the BBN, me included, have stored in our memory. Let’s get into goals.
Slow the Vols, Slow the Run
Tennessee utilizes tempo to create mismatches in the run game. Hurry up is a theme that the UK defenders will have drilled into their heads by Saturday. The Volunteer offensive line is large, physical, and can keep up with the speed of the game.
Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small are formidable and physical runners. But, the most dangerous ball carrier in this one may be QB Joe Milton III. With the passing game not living up to the billing, the UT signal-caller is relying on his legs more as the season moves forward.
The magic number here is 180 yards.
Plaster?
I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again; I love Mark Stoops. First was the “Pound beers” and now we get, “Plaster.” What the head coach was referencing was for his defenders not to get lost in the scramble drill and to plaster pass catchers once they break off routes. Makes sense. The only problem is that Kentucky has not gotten quarterbacks to the ground very often. The Cats have registered 12 fewer sacks than the Vols. The 16 total is also somewhat misleading with several coming in just a few games.
I’m extending Stoops’ words here to reference the front seven’s plastering of Joe Milton III. Kentucky cannot let him out of the pocket. He can and will create explosive runs via the scramble.
Stand Up in the Middle 8
I get stats from Adam Luckett these days. That used to be my thing. Can’t keep up as well as I once did. He recently posted or “X’d” that UK has been outscored 40-14 in the Middle 8 against UGA and Mizzou. That’s not ideal. I think the objective here is pretty simple. Don’t get humiliated in the Middle 8.
SPECIAL TEAMS
I think the obvious objective here is to not lose the field position game from poor punting. This inefficiency has led to opponents not having to travel very far in order to reach the Red Zone.
Punt the Football
A 40-yard per punt average doesn’t sound or read too awfully bad. But, the distance is dropping on a weekly basis. Additionally, the timing of poor kicks couldn’t be worse. Recently, Kentucky is not flipping the field. This hurts the defense which in turn puts the offense in stress to keep up on the scoreboard. Gotta be better in this department. If not, ballgame.
Don’t Lose the Field Position Game
See above. Missouri started four drives in UK territory a week ago. The Tigers’ average starting field position was at their own 40-yard line. There are very few teams in America that could win a football game with those overriding, third-phase factors.
WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?
Good vs. Evil is a topic that spans the ages. The dichotomy has been written about for centuries. Movies also depict the good guys vs. the bad guys. For me, Tennessee was the bad guy or villainous character described by classical writers and portrayed in Hollywood.
You see, I was born in Perry County, raised in Letcher, and educated in Harlan. That’s about as southeast Kentucky as you can get. Unfortunately, there were Tennessee fans that lived back home which hurt my feelings and pissed me off to be honest. How could they turn their backs on my beloved Wildcats?
In my formative years, Tennessee was as villainous as the shark in the movie Jaws. That flick freaked me out. I hated that fish. It also scared me. I wouldn’t get in a swimming pool for two years after seeing that movie. So, to me, UT is the on-screen shark.
That kind of sums up my feelings toward Tennessee. I grew up loathing the Volunteers but also had a healthy and irrational fear of the Orange when viewing defeat after defeat. That changed in my playing days of course, but there’s something about this game that makes me uncomfortable. I almost fear losing more than I expect to win. That’s a me issue that comes from decades of disappointment.
Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite. This game is close in the eyes of Vegas. The Cats’ last two games have me a little wobbly when projecting future outcomes. This is a must-win for both teams. Some may describe it as a crossroads game. Regardless, severe consequences await the winner and loser.
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