What we know heading into Kentucky vs. Missouri

Kentucky is 5-1 coming off a tough SEC loss. Missouri is 5-1 coming off a tough SEC loss. We have a significant swing game in the SEC East on the slate. Which team is ready to bounce back to deliver a critical victory in Week 7?

Saturday is a potential letdown spot for both the Wildcats and the Tigers. Eliah Drinkwitz and Mark Stoops will both be looking to lead their team to an inspired performance at Kroger Field. There is no hiding from the magnitude of this football game.

Before toe meets leather in Lexington, let’s take a step back a review what we learned this week.

Luther Burden III is a problem

Missouri might have the best wide receiver in college football. New offensive coordinator Kirby Moore is calling plays like he does. Former five-star recruit Luther Burden III has been elite through six games this season and is well on his way to first-team All-American honors.

The sophomore from St. Louis leads college football in receptions (54), targets (71), and receiving yards (793). Burden trails only Malik Nabers in receptions of 20-plus yards (14). Burden is the Missouri offense.

Brady Cook is playing like a top-20 quarterback in college football through six games. The redshirt junior is one of the most improved players in the country. Moore and Burden have a ton to do with this. Burden is responsible for 23 of Cook’s 45 explosive completions. The slot receiver is the engine of this Missouri offense.

The Tigers have had a 62.9 percent pass play rate through two SEC games. There is no hiding from what this offense is trying to do. The ball is going to Burden and good things are happening as this receiver is averaging 9.0 yards after the catch and has reeled in six receptions on 10 targets on passes over 20-plus air yards.

Kentucky must find a way to slow Missouri’s best player down.

Missouri’s pass defense is a legitimate weakness

Entering this season, Missouri returned both Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. at cornerback. At SEC Media Days, many pundits — myself included — believed Missouri had the best cornerback tandem in the SEC. The Tigers also returned a pair of senior starters at safety.

Second-year defensive coordinator Blake Baker had all of the pieces available to have one of the best pass defenses in the SEC. That has not played out through six games.

Missouri enters Saturday’s contest with Kentucky ranking No. 96 in passing success rate and No. 117 in passing EPA/play. Vanderbilt averaged over eight yards per attempt against this secondary. Memphis threw for over 300 yards. The Tigers have allowed 14 passing touchdowns through six games and has only recorded four interceptions.

The pass rush has been productive, but there are some major issues in coverage. Missouri will be without Rakestraw against Kentucky. The home team desperately needs Devin Leary to snap out of his current funk to take advantage of a porous Missouri pass defense.

This game will probably be close

Kentucky enters this week’s meeting with Missouri owning a 9-4 series lead. The Wildcats have won 7 of 8 after losing the first two when the Tigers joined the SEC. However, many of these have come down to the wire.

• 2012 (Columbia): Missouri 33, Kentucky 10
• 2013 (Lexington): Missouri 48, Kentucky 17
• 2014 (Columbia): Missouri 20, Kentucky 10
• 2015 (Lexington): Kentucky 21, Missouri 13
• 2016 (Columbia): Kentucky 35, Missouri 21
• 2017 (Lexington): Kentucky 40, Missouri 34
• 2018 (Columbia): Kentucky 15, Missouri 14
• 2019 (Lexington): Kentucky 29, Missouri 7
• 2020 (Columbia): Missouri 20, Kentucky 10
• 2021 (Lexington): Kentucky 35, Missouri 28
• 2022 (Columbia): Kentucky 21, Missouri 17

Five meetings in this series have been decided by one-possession. Two more have been decided by 10 points. Each has come in the last nine meetings. All these teams do is play close games against each other. In a year where both teams appear to be very even, another close game in the fourth quarter could be coming to Kroger Field.