Kentucky now has clear path for No. 1 seed in Chicago

Adam Luckettby:Adam Luckett•03/11/22•

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Kentucky opens up play in the SEC Tournament on Friday night. However, the path to a one-seed on Selection Sunday has already been cleared.

Championship Week is off to a very hot start. Texas A&M and Florida gave us a thriller at the SEC Tournament, TCU erased a 20-point deficit against Texas, Indiana pulled off a crazy comeback against Michigan, and Villanova squeaked by St. John’s. Yet, the biggest development for John Calipari’s club happened in the Big 12.

On Friday night, Oklahoma stunned No. 3 Baylor in a 72-67 upset victory in Kansas City. The Bears were ice cold from three (3 of 22) while the Sooners were hot (11 of 21) and that made the ultimate difference in the game.

Why was that win important? Well, Kentucky now has a clear path for a No. 1 seed. Let’s dive into how the Wildcats get there.

SEC winner could have inside track

Everyone is anticipating a rematch between Auburn and Kentucky in the SEC Championship Game on Sunday. If that occurs, the winner now has an avenue thanks to Baylor’s latest loss.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released a fresh bracketology and informed folks last night that the door is open for the one-seed line.

“The bigger story may be the impact on Baylor,” writes Lunardi. “The Bears remain a No. 1 seed, but are in position to be passed by the eventual SEC champion and perhaps lose the desired South Region.”

Due to the loss, Arizona has now officially leaped Baylor, and the Wildcats will get the No. 2 overall seed and the South Region as long as Tommy Lloyd’s team takes care of business over the next two nights in the Pac-12. However, Arizona is dealing with injury issues as point guard Kerr Kriisa suffered a sprained ankle against Stanford, and his status is unknown for the rest of the weekend.

In the Big 12, the Kansas Jayhawks have a chance to grab a No. 1 seed if Bill Self’s program can win another conference tournament in Kansas City. Down in Tampa, both Auburn and Kentucky can do the same.

For UK, the Wildcats are currently higher than Baylor in both NET and the predictive metrics. Meanwhile, Kentucky could have more Quad 1 victories by the end of the weekend. Currently, Kentucky has no Quad 2 losses, and Baylor has one.

Everything is wide open for Calipari and his team. The Wildcats are three wins away from securing a No. 1 seed for the first time since 2015.

Kansas vs. Kentucky resume battle

For this exercise, let’s just go ahead and assume that both the Jayhawks run the table this weekend along with Arizona. That would create quite the conversation for the selection committee for the No. 3 overall team.

Let’s dive into the resumes of both squads.

Kansas Jayhawks

  • Record: 25-6 (14-4)
  • NET: 7
  • Result metrics: 5 (Sagarin), 9 (KenPom), 12 (BPI)
  • Quad 1 record: 10-5
  • Quad 1A record: 3-4
  • Quad 3/Quad 4 losses: 0
  • Strength of schedule: 8
  • Strength of record: 3
  • Best win: Baylor (home)

Kentucky Wildcats

  • Record: 25-6 (14-4)
  • NET: 3
  • Result metrics: 3 (BPI), 4 (KenPom), 4 (Sagarin)
  • Quad 1 record: 9-6
  • Quad 1A record: 3-5
  • Quad3/Quad 4 losses: 0
  • Strength of schedule: 22
  • Strength of record: 5
  • Best win: Kansas (away)

As the lists show, the margins are slim between the two blue blood programs. To close the Big 12 Tournament, Kansas will have two more Quadrant 1 games with a Quadrant 1A meeting in the title game against Texas Tech possible. After facing Vanderbilt in a Quadrant 2 matchup, Kentucky could have a pair of Quadrant 1A matchups to close the SEC Tournament in Tampa.

If all that plays out, Kansas will have one more Quadrant 1 win but Kentucky will have one more Quadrant 1A win. The Jayhawks have played a tougher schedule, but the Wildcats own a monster head-to-head win over Kansas and the result metrics.

It will be a close call, but Kentucky should get the edge over Kansas due to that head-to-head beatdown delivered in Allen Fieldhouse. The winner will get the Chicago region.

Do not expect chalk

If Thursday told us anything, it was to expect the unexpected. Top-ranked teams were pushed by foes that finished in the middle of their conference this year. We saw huge comebacks and overtime games. Things are going to start getting crazy.

For now, there is no real reason to worry about seeding. Survive-and-advance mode is officially here. Kentucky has a window to take advantage of, but the Wildcats have to go one step at a time. The first goal will be to knock off Vanderbilt for a third time this season.

That has not been an easy thing to do for Kentucky in the past.

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