Kentucky's string of frontcourt recruiting misses is puzzling (and concerning)

From 2009 through 2018, Kentucky managed to secure a commitment from at least one top-rated big every recruiting class. It started with DeMarcus Cousins in 2009, followed by Enes Kanter and Terrence Jones in 2010, Anthony Davis in 2011, Nerlens Noel in 2012, Julius Randle and Dakari Johnson in 2013, Karl-Anthony Towns and Trey Lyles in 2014, Skal Labissiere in 2015, Bam Adebayo in 2016, Jarred Vanderbilt and Nick Richards in 2017 and EJ Montgomery in 2018.

14 frontcourt players in ten years, all ranked in the top three at their respective positions. Cousins, Kanter, Davis, Noel, Randle, Johnson and Labissiere were all ranked No. 1 at their position.

It was a span that saw recruiting misses, sure, especially in terms of priority recruits. Zion Williamson was Kentucky’s primary frontcourt target in 2018 and the program had to secure a spring commitment from Montgomery to keep that streak alive. Mohamed Bamba was Calipari’s prized target in 2017 before he chose Texas, top-ranked center Marques Bolden chose Duke over Kentucky in 2016, so on and so forth.

Then vs. now

“You don’t have to make them all. You just can’t miss them all.” It’s become John Calipari’s go-to Cal-ism in recent years.

For the first ten years of his time in Lexington, Calipari’s recruiting success has gone hand-in-hand with that mantra. Known as the best closer in college basketball, he’s been able to handpick his favorite targets and assemble some of the best teams in the school’s rich history. Those teams have always been anchored by a sure-fire superstar piece in the frontcourt.

From the span of 2019 to now, though, Kentucky’s recruiting pitch for top-ranked frontcourt seniors has gone stale.

The rut started with a head-scratching finish in 2019, one that saw UK miss on the likes of James Wiseman (Memphis), Isaiah Stewart (Washington), Vernon Carey (Duke), N’Faly Dante (Oregon), Oscar Tshiebwe (West Virginia), Matthew Hurt (Duke) and Jaden McDaniels (Washington). Every major frontcourt piece Kentucky offered in that class turned down Calipari in favor of another school and coach.

In 2020, UK extended public offers to Moussa Cisse and Makur Maker at the center position to go with the likes of Scottie Barnes, Greg Brown and Isaiah Todd at power forward. Isaiah Jackson ended up being a major hit, but came in ranked No. 30 overall and No. 7 among senior centers in the 247Sports Composite.

As for 2021, Kentucky pushed all its chips in on Paolo Banchero, who ultimately signed with Duke. Illinois superstar center Kofi Cockburn expressed legitimate interest in joining the program this past offseason, but Calipari had his eyes set on prized reclass center Jalen Duren. UK would end up with neither, with the latter ultimately signing with Memphis.

Three strikes in 2022

The miss with Duren — a former 2022 prospect — bleeds into the current senior recruiting class. Kentucky has landed commitments from two of On3’s top-five prospects in Shaedon Sharpee (No. 1) and Chris Livingston (No. 4) to go with top-25 recruit Skyy Clark (No. 21). A commitment from Cason Wallace (No. 7) on Nov. 7 would give the Cats three top-7 pledges and four in the top 21. It’s an exceptional group of guard and wing pieces, one that certainly deserves praise.

The center position, though, remains a different story. Calipari offered three players at the five this summer, the first being Dereck Lively II in June, followed by Kyle Filipowski in July and Adem Bona in August. Filipowski — long seen as a Duke lock, mind you — committed to Jon Scheyer and the Blue Devils just ten days after his Kentucky offer went public on July 29. Lively, Calipari’s top priority in the frontcourt, announced his commitment to Duke less than two months later on Sept. 20. And then to round out the trio, Bona made his commitment Monday morning, choosing UCLA over Kentucky.

Again, three swings on the nation’s top center prospects, all misses. Two set to sign with Kentucky’s biggest rival among blue blood programs, and a third turning down Calipari’s offer after being seen as a heavy, heavy UK lean since the spring.

What’s next for Kentucky?

The clearest issue with Kentucky’s most recent recruiting loss is that there isn’t an immediate answer on a replacement. No other senior centers are of interest to the program due to skill, fit, health or other off-court concerns. And as things stand today, the reclass options for 2023 aren’t very appealing, either. Development can take place through the winter, spring and early summer, but there are no college-ready bigs penciled in as automatic reclass candidates.

Kentucky’s next step will be to evaluate its current centers — Oscar Tshiebwe, Daimion Collins and Lance Ware — throughout the 2021-22 season and examine potential options in the transfer portal. If one, two, or even all three emerge as serious pro prospects or consider their own transfer options, you’re looking at a hectic offseason in the portal searching for day-one standouts. You hope a Kofi Cockburn becomes available like this past offseason, but how often does a 7-foot, 285-pound All-American center consider a transfer? He was widely regarded as the best player to hit the portal ever. Will name, image and likeness opportunities push college basketball superstars who may not be ready or built for the NBA back to school? You hope. Until those names hit the portal, though, it remains just that: hope.

Transfer portal vs. high school recruiting

To his credit, Calipari has adjusted well. When he’s missed on his top targets or lost an unexpected player or two to the draft, he’s had success in the portal. In the frontcourt alone, he’s added the likes of Reid Travis, Nate Sestina, Olivier Sarr and Oscar Tshiebwe, all seen as strong to elite transfer options at the time of their additions. On paper, they were all solid counters to recruiting misses with high school seniors. On-court production may be a different story, but the same can be said about normal high school recruiting. Not every high-profile transfer is a guaranteed hit just like blue chip recruits aren’t always stars. We experienced both scenarios this past season.

At the end of the day, it’s about perception. It’s about what the next era of high-profile prospects think and what opposing coaches see. It’s about future recruiting pitches and branding, the appeal of each program. And right now, the perception is that Kentucky — for whatever reason — can’t land its top targets in the frontcourt.

Maybe it doesn’t matter, for now at least. Kentucky’s current roster is loaded with talent and appears to be built for a deep run in March. Add the biggest name the portal has to offer in the spring, and next year’s roster might be capable, too.

At this point, though, it’s fair to admit we’re well past the point of ignoring the elephant in the room. After losing out on Lively, Filipowski and Bona, the trend of missing out on the nation’s top center targets has — barring a major late-bloomer — extended yet another recruiting class.

You don’t have to land them all, but you can’t miss them all, either.