Luckett's Locks: Over City

After a hot start, things cooled off quickly for us in Week 9. We finished up 3-3 against the spread (ATS) as our season mark is at 23-30-1. But we’re due for a heater.

To begin November and the stretch run of the college football season, we’re calling for some shootouts. We usually are Team Under here at Luckett’s Locks, but there is some real value with some of the over totals this week.

Let’s get to the best plays on the card and get to the window.

Tulane at Tulsa (+7.5)

Tulane is having a breakthrough season in year seven under Willie Fritz as the Green Wave are 7-1 (4-0) and in the driver’s seat for a New Year’s Six bid. The American Athletic Conference member has gotten to this point by playing complementary football. Quarterback Michael Pratt (8.9 yards per attempt, 17 total touchdowns) leads the way for this well-rounded team.

After consecutive winning seasons, Tulsa is on the verge of a 4-8 campaign in 2022. However, do not sleep on Philip Montgomery’s squad. The Golden Hurricane is explosive on offense but does have some issues finishing drives with points. The defense gets ahead of the chains but does give up a lot of big plays.

When you look back at Tulane’s schedule, Fritz’s team plays in a lot of close games. The Green Wave have a strange home loss to Southern Miss as the last six games have all been decided by two possessions or less. Tulsa is 13-3-1 ATS as a dog since 2019 and is in a great position on Saturday as Tulane has a huge conference game with ranked UCF from first-place in the American looming next week.

Let’s jump on the home dog in a great situation.

Baylor at Oklahoma Over 61.5

After a big rivalry win on the road over Texas Tech, Dave Aranda’s third Baylor team remained in the Big 12 title hunt. The Bears still have home games remaining with top teams TCU and Kansas State along with a road trip to Texas. Regardless, the Big 12 title will go through Waco. But first, the Bears must go to Norman and beat Oklahoma. Offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes has put together a well-rounded unit, but the defense ranks sub-50 in many metrics.

Things have calmed down at Oklahoma after the Sooners logged consecutive conference wins over Kansas and Iowa State. The defense has a ton of issues, but offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby has put together a legitimate top-25 offense in his first season back in the Big 12. The long-time Baylor assistant will now get to see if he can hang a big number on the Bears.

Both offenses are good, and the Oklahoma defense is bad. All signs point to a shootout with both teams getting to the 30s. We will likely have another close game in the Big 12, but this one is an over ticket as these two teams should trade punches on Saturday.

Enjoy the points. Take the over.

For more picks Against the Spread, check out this week’s edition of Pick 3 on the Kentucky Sports Radio YouTube Channel.

Texas at Kansas State Over 54.5

Texas has shown some proof of concept in year two under Steve Sarkisian but still enters November at 5-3 (3-2). Some second-half meltdowns on the road led to losses against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech where the Longhorns looked like the superior team for the first 30 minutes. The offense is doing some good things and the defense is stopping the run, but this talented roster is struggling to put it all together.

Quietly, Chris Klieman has Kansas State at 6-2 (4-1) in year four despite dealing with some quarterback injuries. The Wildcats are fresh off a home demolition of Oklahoma State and could be heading back to the Big 12 title game. The offense has balance, and the defense is very efficient.

Points are scored in the Big 12, and we’re getting a short total in Manhattan. Texas should come in highly motivated off of the bye to try and get their first road win of the season. Scoring points with Quinn Ewers at quarterback hasn’t been an issue for Texas this season. However, Kansas State should be able to keep up at home.

We’ll see an interesting game in the Big 12 here with conference title implications. Let’s jump on the over as both teams have a great shot at getting into the 30s in this matchup.

Alabama at LSU (+13.5)

Alabama is in win-or-go-home mode when it comes to the College Football Playoff, and Saturday is very important for Nick Saban’s squad. This certainly does not look like a vintage Crimson Tide squad as Bama ranks outside of the top 10 in both offensive and defensive EPA. Bryce Young is very, very good at quarterback, but the surrounding pieces don’t appear to be national title good.

Meanwhile, LSU has been quietly getting better with each week. Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels is having a terrific year at quarterback with 21 total touchdowns as he’s emerged as one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in college football. The defense has been very “bend but don’t break” but the Tigers are a legitimate top-15 team.

Alabama is laying double-digit points on the road against a legitimately good team. That feels like a lot. The Tide has struggled in recent road games, and LSU is good enough to win this game outright if the road team makes some mistakes. It’s the first huge home game of the Brian Kelly era, and Tiger Stadium will be rocking on Saturday night.

LSU has a great shot at the upset and usually performs very well as a home underdog. Let’s take the near two touchdowns.

Auburn at Mississippi State (-12.5)

The Bryan Harsin era has finally ended, and Auburn legend Cadillac Williams has been named the interim head coach for the Tigers. The program great is not inheriting a promising situation as the SEC West program is legitimately bad on both offense and defense. The Tigers can’t stop the run and have no passing game to speak of.

After a hot 5-1 start, Mississippi State took consecutive double-digit conference losses heading into the bye. The Bulldogs will enter Saturday night’s SEC West contest with an efficient passing game and a top-40 defense that looks to cause havoc out of a 3-3-5 alignment. The Bulldogs are a borderline top-25 team that can make a run in November.

State has been dominant at home with blowout wins over Arkansas and Texas A&M this season. Mike Leach’s squad is the better team in multiple areas in this matchup. Add in the fact that Auburn just hired Mississippi State athletics director John Cohen this week, and the crowd should be pretty juiced at Davis-Wade Stadium.

The Bulldogs have been covering numbers at home and are looking to get rid of an in-season losing streak against a heated rival. A blowout could be coming to Starkville.

Let’s lay the double-digits with the home team.

Best Bet: Tennessee at Georgia Over 66.5

The dream season rolls on for Tennessee in year two under Josh Heupel. The Vols now sit at 8-0 (4-0) and are a win in Athens away from likely winning their first SEC East title since 2007. Running a version of the Art Briles spread, the Vols have an elite passing game (No. 6 in success rate, No. 7 in EPA) to go along with a very strong rushing attack (No. 6 in success rate, No. 12 in EPA). Add in a defense that is dynamite against the run, and you have a group that is a legitimate national title threat.

Georgia is also undefeated entering this matchup and owns both a top-10 defense and a top-10 offense. The Bulldogs are good at just about everything on offense, and the same can be said about the defense in Athens. Kirby Smart’s team has a great chance to repeat this season.

We all know what happens when great offense meets great defense in college football. The offense comes away victorious. No one in college football has an answer for Hendon Hooker‘s deep ball accuracy or Jalin Hyatt‘s vertical speed in Tennessee’s spread scheme, but Stetson Bennett should be able to take advantage of Tennessee’s passing defense that ranks No. 89 in success rate and No. 103 in EPA.

We’re getting a shootout at Sanford Stadium where the first one to 40 is likely the winner. Let’s roll with the over in what will be a wild college football game on CBS.