Scouting Report: Florida Gators

It’s a new era of Florida football, and the expectations have been raised after just one game. The more things change the more they stay the same.

The Gators are fresh off a home win against a top-10 Utah team as Florida scored touchdowns on consecutive fourth quarter possessions and held the Utes scoreless on two second half goal-to-go possessions with the final stop occurring via interception in the endzone with just seconds remaining.

After one week, many are jumping on the Napier bandwagon. That was shown when the pollsters took Florida from unranked to No. 12 overall.

That ranking might be a tad too high. KSR’s Scouting Report is here to dive into the Florida Gators as this team has top-level talent, some holes, real depth questions, and what many believe could be a cheat code at quarterback.

Nuts and Bolts

Entering 2009, Florida had won two of the last three national championships and ran the table in the regular season with senior Tim Tebow at quarterback. The No. 1 Gators faced No. 2 Alabama in a showdown of undefeated teams at the SEC Championship Game.

That evening in Atlanta saw the birth of one SEC dynasty and the death of another.

Since 2010, Florida is 96-57 (.627) overall with a 58-41 mark in SEC play. The Gators have zero top-five finishes in 13 seasons and haven’t won an SEC title since 2008. The program has reached the conference championship game four more times but has fallen to Nick Saban’s Alabama in each meeting. Meanwhile, Alabama has won six national championships and eight SEC titles as we’ve seen one of the best runs in college football history.

During that run, Florida quickly burned through three head coaches. Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain, and Dan Mullen each had some early success with double-digit win seasons in Gainesville before things began to fall apart after their first two years. Napier is hoping to avoid that same fate.

The former staffer at Alabama and Clemson has worked for both Saban and Dabo Swinney. However, Napier also stepped out of those systems to become a successful offensive coordinator at Arizona State in 2017. From there, the Georgia native would lead Louisiana to a 40-12 record over four seasons with four division titles and an outright league championship in 2021. The head coach has a process, and that helped lead the Ragin’ Cajuns to an elite 16-3 record in one-possession games. That record improved to 17-3 after Saturday’s three-point win.

That process includes a meticulous approach with a support staff army that is compensated by a $5 million salary pool to help Napier fill out roles in quality control, recruiting, player personnel, and other areas. Add in a brand new football-only facility that just opened, and the Gators have made a financial commitment to return to championship glory.

Now the wins must follow.

Saturday will be the 73rd meeting between Kentucky and Florida with the latter owning a commanding 53-19 series lead. Infamously, the Gators won 31 consecutive games in this series from 1987-2017, but Kentucky has been able to win 2 of the last 4 in the series pulling off an upset in The Swamp in 2018.

Out in the desert, Florida is inching towards a touchdown favorite (-6) in the matchup with a total of 52.5. That’s a projected final around 29-23. Both the Gators and the Cats covered last week. Kentucky is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog with four straight-up wins. The Cats are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings of the series.

Florida offense

For the third consecutive time, Florida hired a head coach with an offensive background, and Billy Napier will call the plays just like Dan Mullen. Let’s take a look at what the Louisiana head coach inherited before diving into the scheme and personnel.

• Scoring: 30.7 (No. 49 overall)
• Success Rate: 46.7% (No. 27 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 6.6 (No. 12 overall)
• Yards Per Rush: 5.5 (No. 4 overall)
• Yards Per Attempt: 7.6 (T-47 overall)
• Run Play Percentage: 53.6% (No. 63 overall)
• Explosive Play Rate: 14.7% (No. 12 overall)
• Points Per Drive: 2.25 (No. 65 overall)
• Points Per Scoring Opportunity: 4.4 (No. 43 overall)

The Gators had an explosive offense in 2021 that was backed with strong efficiency mainly due to a dependable ground game. That ties directly into what Napier wants to do on offense. The Gators are now an outside zone offense operating primarily out of the pistol that will use heavy motion and some option looks to get defenses flowing east-west. From there, play-action will be used to take schemed-up vertical shots.

We’ll get to their new star QB in a minute, but this offense needs strong running back production to set everything else up. The Gators got that against Utah.

Louisiana transfer Montrell Johnson Jr. (5-11, 218, So.) is splitting carries with Nay’Quan Wright (5-9, 202, RJr.) and true freshman Trevor Etienne (5-9, 217, Fr.). The Gators got 178 yards on 27 attempts from its traditional run game against Utah with eight rushes of 10-plus yards. Johnson is expected to lead the way for this group, but this position unit did have a couple of fumbles. Expect the Gators to have another strong rushing attack this season as this group runs behind a good offensive line.

Florida returned three starters in the trenches as offensive coordinator Rob Sale reunited with Napier in Gainesville after a year away with the New York Giants. The offensive line coach added a potential All-American to his room when O’Cyrus Torrence (6-5, 347, Sr.) followed Napier to Gainesville. The Louisiana transfer could be the top guard prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft. With an interior three of Kingsley Eguakun (6-3, 301, RJr.) at center along with Torrence and Ethan White (6-4, 331, RJr.) at left guard, the Gators have a solid foundation. This group was dominant against Utah and will be a big challenge for most defensive fronts in the SEC.

Now to the big dog.

After dabbling last year and flashing superstar playmaking potential, Anthony Richardson (6-4, 232, RSo.) has been handed the keys by Napier. The new head coach turned his NFL prospect at QB loose against Utah, and No. 15 was the main reason the Gators won the football game.

ANTHONY RICHARDSON SAID DON’T MIND IF I DO 🐊💨 pic.twitter.com/uTsgcU3jo0

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 4, 2022

ANTHONY RICHARDSON IS BOX OFFICE 🤯 pic.twitter.com/65NhVdGl7Z

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 4, 2022

The former top-200 recruit threw for 168 yards on 24 attempts with a high passing success rate (58.3%) and no sacks taken in the win. On the ground, Richardson was a difference-maker with 106 yards on 11 attempts with three touchdowns on an outstanding rushing success rate (72.7%) as the Gainesville (Fla.) Eastside product made some huge plays for the Gators.

Richardson has some freaky traits and they were all on display against the Utes. His ability to run the ball and make plays off script makes him a real pain in the rear to deal with in the red zone. The quarterback still has a long way to go playing in the pocket within structure, but the playmaking is real. No play is ever dead when Richardson has the ball. The Florida offense will go as he goes, and the added element of QB run should make this one of college football’s top rushing attacks this season.

If things were to bog down on Florida, it could be due to the wideout position.

The Gators desperately needed an upgrade on the perimeter but only landed Arizona State transfer Ricky Pearsall (6-1, 200, RJr.) in the portal and the slot wideout performed well in the opener with four receptions for 67 yards. However, injuries have been an issue for the transfer as Pearsall missed time during Florida’s camp with a foot injury.

On the outside, top-100 recruit Xzavier Henderson (6-3, 195, Jr.) and former Penn State transfer Justin Shorter (6-4, 223, RSr.), but neither has proven to be a consistent playmaker at wideout. There is not much depth at the position and due to that, the Gators are probably going to remain run-heavy.

Throughout his career, Napier has leaned into two tight end usage, but that’s not an option as Florida has very little depth at tight end. Despite a strong performance in the opener, there are still some concerns about the offense.

Florida is trending to be an efficiency machine on offense thanks to a strong run game with Anthony Richardson adding some extra juice, but there are wide receiver and tight end concerns. Without dependable explosiveness from the passing game, this is a team that could have to rely consistently on double-digit play drives to score if their quarterback cannot create magic.

Florida defense

After missing on a few key defensive coordinator targets, Billy Napier decided to make Patrick Toney his defensive coordinator at Florida. The 32-year-old was a fast riser through the coaching ranks and is now in his third season as an FBS play-caller after working for Napier at Louisiana.

Let’s take a look at what Toney inherited in Gainesville.

• Scoring: 26.8 (T-73 overall)
• Success Rate: 40.9% (No. 53 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 5.5 (T-59 overall)
• Yards Per Rush: 4.5 (No. 88 overall)
• Yards Per Attempt: 6.7 (T-26 overall)
• Havoc Rate: 11.2% (No. 86 overall)
• Points Per Drive: 1.90 (No. 32 overall)
• Points Per Scoring Opportunity: 4.0 (No. 51 overall)

After a bad year in 2020, the Gators took some strides in 2021 on defense. There were some very low moments at the end of the season, but overall this was an average defense last year. However, the Gators lost some draft picks and saw multiple starters enter the transfer portal. But there is still talent even if there is a lack of depth.

Gervon Dexter Sr. (6-6, 312, Jr.) was a top-10 recruit in the class of 2020 and enters the year as one of the top interior line prospects in college football. Dexter possesses great length and potential, but dominant play seems to come and go. On the edge, Florida gets some much-needed consistent playmaking.

Brenton Cox Jr. (6-3, 252, RSr.) is a former Georgia transfer who is entering year four with the Florida program. The EDGE player has started in 26 consecutive games for the Gators recording 25 tackles for loss. Last week against Utah, Cox produced three QB hits to go along with nine tackles and a forced fumble. The veteran will give Kentucky some problems.

There are depth issues outside these two players on the front as Florida needs both Cox and Dexter to be big-time players.

At the second level, both Amari Burney (6-2, 228, Super) and Ventrell Miller (6-0, 221, Super) returned for their extra year of eligibility in 2022. The Gators don’t have a lot of size at off-ball linebacker but do have a ton of experience with 33 combined starts from this duo. Burney recorded the game-winning interception last week. Shemar James (6-1, 230, Fr.) is a player to keep an eye on as the former top-100 recruit started for the Gators last week.

The strongest position group on the defense appears to be at safety. Both Trey Dean III (6-3, 207, Super) and Rashad Torrence II (6-0, 202, Jr.) have started games since they were freshmen. Both players logged over 85 tackles last season and have combined for seven career interceptions. The Gators will ask much of these two veterans as this duo plays a pivotal role in Florida’s big-play prevention.

At cornerback, Jason Marshall Jr. (6-1, 198, So.) is another former five-star recruit who has started seven games in his career. The South Florida native has a bright future and is already one of the best players on this defense. However, CB2 is a weak spot as the Gators rotate both Avery Helm (6-1, 170, RSo.) and Georgia transfer Jalen Kimber (6-0, 178, RSo.). Size is a bit of an issue at cornerback.

The defensive front issues showed up in Week 1 against Utah as the Gators had a very hard time stopping the run. Staying fresh throughout the season will be an issue for this unit as the program shifts to a new scheme that is going to be more worried about big-play prevention as opposed to hunting for havoc plays like the previous years.

Florida special teams

Florida is breaking in a new placekicker, and redshirt freshman Adam Mihalek was perfect on extra points against Utah but has yet to attempt a field goal. Mihalek served as the kickoff specialist and produced three touchbacks in five attempts. Kentucky could have some return opportunities for Barion Brown.

Jeremy Crawshaw returns at punter as the redshirt sophomore averaged 44.1 yards per punt last season. ranking outside of the top-50 in net average (40.0). With Crawshaw, foes averaged over nine yards per return last season and gave up a 10-yard return against Utah. Kentucky will have a chance to flip the field with a big return from Tayvion Robinson.

Kentucky enters the game having an on-paper advantage in every phase of the kicking game. The Wildcats need to make that count in the matchup on Saturday.

The third phase could create a sizable field position advantage that could go a long way in a close game.

Keys to Victory

— Both Billy Napier and Mark Stoops have a similar philosophy when it comes to football. Both head coaches want to be physical, establish the run, use some ball control offense, and limit big plays on defense. That can lead to limited possessions. Unless things get wonky, neither team will get more than 10 possessions so that means this game will be played in the margins. Therefore, this comes down to three factors: finishing drives, middle 8, and turnovers. Taking advantage of scoring opportunities, winning the end of the first half, and protecting the football will be pivotal on Saturday. Whoever wins at least 2 of 3 will have the advantage on Saturday.

— Special teams made a huge splash last week against Miami (Ohio). Kentucky has two excellent returners and experienced legs at both kicker and punter. That helped create distance in Week 1. Kentucky needs to do the same on Saturday. Florida has some work to do in the third phase and has been susceptible to punt returns with Jeremy Crawshaw. Tayvion Robinson will have a great opportunity to flip the contest in the return game. Kentucky needs to win this battle and this should give the road team an advantage in the field position battle.

— Anthony Richardson is the star, but in many ways, the tailback running game is the engine of the Florida offense. The Gators need production from their tailbacks to open up everything else in the offense. Last week, this group went for 178 yards on 6.6 yards per attempt. That number needs to decrease in Week 2. If Kentucky cannot stop the traditional run game, it will be hard to get stops as the Gators will be allowed to play ahead of the chains for most of the game.

— Kentucky cannot win this game without a good performance from Will Levis. However, the redshirt senior needs some help. The protection must improve and the execution in the run game must get better. Kentucky is highly unlikely to outrush Florida but must get something from the ground game. Look for Rich Scangarello to get a bit more creative. Getting to around 130 rushing yards at about five yards per rush with a solid efficiency rate will go a long way in opening things up for the passing game.

— Against Utah, Florida’s offensive line was able to grind down Utah’s defensive front as the Utes were running on fumes as the Gators put together a pair of fourth quarter touchdown drives. However, Kentucky has some more depth than Utah. Kentucky will go 6-7 deep on the defensive front and must keep that rotation throughout the game. A fresh front will give the Wildcats a good chance late in a close game. Overall, this group will play a big role as they look to stop the run against a good offensive line and remain disciplined when rushing Anthony Richardson. A lot is riding on Anwar Stewart’s position group, and this group needs to play well on Saturday night. The defensive line is the most important position for Kentucky behind Levis.