What does John Calipari to Arkansas mean for Kentucky's 2024 recruiting class?

John Calipari is headed to Arkansas. After 15 years in Lexington, the Hall of Fame head coach is off to Fayetteville on a five-year deal with a significant financial commitment from the Razorbacks. It was a shocking development as it all quickly unfolded on Sunday night, but reality has already set in.

Obviously, the focus now shifts to Kentucky’s coaching search. There will be a handful of primary candidates discussed ad nauseam over the coming days (and one we’ll even mention throughout this article). But what about the roster for 2024-25? What could it look like come this fall?

In the wake of the offseason, it was taking longer than expected for some of this past season’s Wildcats to announce their decisions. We were already left wondering which ones would come back, and that curiosity has now doubled. The elephant in the room right now though is Kentucky’s current 2024 recruiting class, which features six high schoolers (four signed, two not) and ranks No. 2 in the country.

What happens to those six? Is it likely that any of them stick with their commitment to the Wildcats? Do they follow Calipari to Arkansas or look elsewhere entirely? UK will more than likely release any signed commits from their National Letter of Intent if they choose to ask for it.

With that in mind, let’s break down each of Kentucky’s six commits and the probability they stay/go.

Jayden Quaintance (C) 6-10, 225 | Word of God Christian Academy (Cleveland, OH)
5-star: No. 8 overall, No. 1 C

• JQ is the Big Fish. At 16 years old, he is required to spend two years post-high school before making the leap to the NBA. There is unlimited untapped potential on Quaintance’s 6-foot-10 frame. He’s also Kentucky’s lone five-star commit from this class. Losing him to Arkansas (or wherever) would be the biggest blow, if only because he’ll be a two-year college player. Prior to committing and signing with Kentucky in November, JQ was considering the likes of Missouri, Florida, Ohio State, and the G League Ignite, which is no longer in operation. Missouri was a huge competitor the first time around. Calipari will likely look to bring Quaintance to Arkansas with him first and foremost.

Likelihood Quaintance stays at UK: 25%

Boogie Fland (PG) 6-2, 175 | Archbishop Stepinac (Harlem, NY)
4-star: No. 18 overall, No. 1 PG

• Fland’s situation will be interesting to monitor, but most of it could hinge on who AD Mitch Barnhart brings in to replace Calipari. Before committing (and then signing) with the ‘Cats, Fland was also considering Indiana and Alabama. The Crimson Tide being in that group is notable, as head coach Nate Oats will be a strong candidate to take over in Lexington. Fland wants to shoot and Oats will let him. Fland wants to be a one-and-done and Oats has experience with that, although obviously not as much as Calipari. If the relationship with Fland and Oats remains strong and the latter comes to UK, it could make sense for Fland to stick around. But Calipari was still the closer in Fland’s recruitment.

Likelihood Fland stays at UK: 40%

Karter Knox (SF) 6-6, 210 | Overtime Elite (Riverview, FL)
4-star: No. 21 overall, No. 8 SF

• The most recent commit, Karter Knox’s ties to Kentucky run exclusively through Calipari. His older brother, Kevin Knox, was a one-and-done NBA lottery pick during his lone year in Lexington during the 2017-18 season. The Knox family has grown incredibly close to Calipari over the years. Karter chose UK over Louisville, South Florida, and a return to Overtime Elite. With Kenny Payne also out as head coach at UL, South Florida (where his brother Kobe Knox plays) or Overtime Elite could once again pop back into the question. Without Calipari, it feels unlikely that Knox would stick around at Kentucky regardless of who steps in next.

Likelihood Knox stays at UK: 15%

Billy Richmond (SF) 6-6, 200 | Camden (Memphis, TN)
4-star: No. 24 overall, No. 9 SF

• Billy Richmond, like Knox, is a player with mostly Calipari connections. Richmond’s father played for Calipari when he coached at Memphis. He also attended high school with the likes of DJ Wagner and Aaron Bradshaw, who are now both presumably more unlikely to return for a sophomore season following the Calipari news. Richmond chose UK over Memphis, LSU, and Alabama. Again, Alabama being in the mix is notable depending on who Barnhart looks at to replace Calipari. But if Oats isn’t the choice, there won’t be much of a reason for Richmond to not explore his options elsewhere.

Likelihood Richmond stays at UK: 25%

Somto Cyril (C) 6-10, 240 | Overtime Elite (Enugu, Nigeria)
4-star: No. 42 overall, No. 7 C

• Teammates with Knox at Overtime Elite, Somto Cyril’s situation is interesting. He was also teammates last season at OTE with projected NBA lottery pick Rob Dillingham. Cyril was the very first 2024 commit back in June 2023. Providence, Cincinnati, and Indiana were also in the mix. Cyril has said in the past he grew up watching Kentucky. He’s been familiar enough with the program over the last year-plus that the decision to stay might be more favorable than to leave. But that’s purely speculation. If we want to compare this to the last time Kentucky made a coaching change (which, yes, was a different era of college basketball), center Daniel Orton stuck around with Calipari despite being initially brought in by Billy Gillispie. Cyril could easily do the same, but it would be best to assume he won’t.

Likelihood Cyril stays at UK: 40%

Travis Perry (PG) 6-2, 170 | Lyon County (Eddyville, KY)
4-star: No. 87 overall, No. 12 PG

• If any of the six commits is likely to stick around with Kentucky, it would be the state’s all-time leading scorer. Travis Perry was a surprise addition when he committed to the Wildcats back in November, but in hindsight, it shouldn’t have been. Perry grew up as a UK fan. He’s friends with Reed Sheppard and has talked about following in Sheppard’s footsteps as the next in-state Kentucky star. Does that change now? It’s certainly possible. Perry was also considering Cincinnati, Ole Miss, Western Kentucky, and Alabama (another reason to mention the Oats connection) before choosing UK. But barring a hire that Perry doesn’t totally believe in, it feels more likely than not he’ll still wind up in Lexington.

Likelihood Perry stays at UK: 75%