Staff Picks: Post-spring Ohio State game-by-game predictions for 2023
COLUMBUS — Ryan Day is in his fifth full year as Ohio State’s head coach. The Buckeyes are searching for their first national title since the 2014 season.
Also on the agenda? Take back Big Ten bragging rights from Michigan, which has beaten Ohio State twice in a row for the first time since 1999-2000.
The 2023 season is still a ways out, but it’s time for Lettermen Row‘s post-spring, game-by-game predictions. Team reporter Andy Backstrom and recruiting analyst Matt Parker are giving it a whirl.
Week 1: at Indiana
ESPN FPI projection: OSU 98.0%
Indiana SP+ ranking: 71
Andy: WIN — Ohio State has averaged 50.8 points per game against Indiana in Day’s first four years as the Buckeyes’ full-time head coach. Yes, there will be a new starting quarterback, and it’s the season opener on the road, but I don’t expect this one to be close. At all.
OSU Record: 1-0
Matt: WIN — Ohio State cruises — eventually — to a win over Indiana. Whether it’s Kyle McCord or Devin Brown behind center, it won’t matter. Get the ball to the skill players and let a tough front seven do the work on defense.
OSU Record: 1-0
Week 2: vs. Youngstown State
ESPN FPI projection: OSU 99.0%
Youngstown State SP+ ranking: N/A
Andy: WIN — Ohio State has outscored Youngstown State, 81-6, in the teams’ previous two meetings. Expect more of the same this time around. Starters will be pulled after halftime, but the Buckeyes will continue scoring. Think 50-burger here.
OSU Record: 2-0
Matt: WIN — Ohio State in a landslide. Penguins don’t live in Ohio except at zoos. The Buckeyes simply outmatch Youngstown State, and it’ll be evident by halftime.
OSU Record: 2-0
Week 3: vs. Western Kentucky
ESPN FPI projection: OSU 99.0%
Western Kentucky SP+ ranking: 84
Andy: WIN — Ohio State will take care of business, but don’t be surprised if Western Kentucky puts up 20 or more points. The Hilltoppers have ranked inside the top 15 in scoring offense back-to-back seasons, and gunslinging quarterback Austin Reed is back after a 40-touchdown 2022 campaign. This could be a mini litmus test for the Buckeyes’ secondary.
OSU Record: 3-0
Matt: WIN — Ohio State moves to 3-0 with a win over Western Kentucky. The 4 p.m. kickoff time is a little funky and could be an issue. Looking ahead to Notre Dame could be an issue. Ultimately, the Buckeyes will get the job done.
OSU Record: 3-0
Week 4: at Notre Dame
ESPN FPI projection: OSU 79.3%
Notre Dame SP+ ranking: 15
Andy: WIN — There will be significant hype surrounding this matchup. It’s in South Bend under the lights of Notre Dame Stadium. Led by Buckeyes alum Marcus Freeman, the Fighting Irish are looking to avenge last year’s 21-10, season-opening loss to Ohio State. But the Buckeyes will have the first game jitters out of the way for this year’s meeting. Ohio State wins, and by more than two scores.
OSU Record: 4-0
Matt: WIN — OK, here’s where it gets interesting. The Buckeyes’ second road trip of the season takes them to South Bend, Indiana, with a primetime game against Notre Dame. Ohio State took care of business last season in Ohio Stadium, and I think it’ll do it again on the road. On paper, the Buckeyes outmatch the Irish, and they have a better coaching staff. Ohio State, but closer than you think.
OSU Record: 4-0
Week 5: OFF
Week 6: vs. Maryland
ESPN FPI projection: OSU 97.5%
Maryland SP+ ranking: 40
Andy: WIN — Taulia Tagovailoa — who is first in Maryland history in career passing yards, completions, passing touchdowns and completion percentage — is back. And that means Maryland has a fighting chance. The big question is, can the Terrapins’ O-Line hold up? Oh, and can the Maryland defense get the stops it needs at the right time? On the road? That’s a bit too much to ask. The Terps will knock off a Big Ten power in 2023 but not Ohio State.
OSU Record: 5-0
Matt: WIN — Ohio State in a blowout. The Buckeyes get a bye week and a home game to welcome the Terrapins. Maryland had Ohio State on the ropes last season, and I don’t expect that to be the case in 2023.
OSU Record: 5-0
Week 7: at Purdue
ESPN FPI projection: OSU 95.6%
Purdue SP+ ranking: 48
Andy: WIN — The Jeff Brohm era is over. Enter, Ryan Walters, a first-time head coach who has his hands full with rebuilding a Purdue program that, yes, made the Big Ten Championship last year but returned a mere 53% of production from the 2022 season, according to ESPN. It will be tough sledding for the Boilermakers, who get Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa before Ohio State. Buckeyes roll.
OSU Record: 6-0
Matt: WIN — Trap game? Maybe. If this were still an Urban Meyer-lead team I’d say watch out, but two years ago the Boilermakers came to Columbus expecting to make it a game and, well, that didn’t happen. Ohio State moves to 6-0 and becomes bowl eligible here.
OSU Record: 6-0
Week 8: vs. Penn State
ESPN FPI projection: OSU 88.4%
Penn State SP+ ranking: 8
Andy: WIN — I’m torn. I think the Buckeyes drop a game either here or the following week at Wisconsin. Which one? That’s a toss-up: Penn State has more talent than Wisconsin, but the Nittany Lions have to play at the Shoe, where they haven’t won since 2011. I think we get another classic between the Big Ten East foes, with the Buckeyes prevailing again. The Penn State pass rush, fueled by defensive end Chop Robinson and linebacker Abdul Carter, could pose issues. But I think Ohio State will come up with the game-ending defensive stand.
OSU Record: 7-0
Matt: WIN — The biggest home game of the season. This is the one where all the recruits will visit for, potentially a night game. Narratives about Drew Allar and Kyle McCord (assuming he’s the starter). It won’t matter. Penn State head coach James Franklin has shown us in moments where his program can beat Ohio State, it doesn’t. Results matter. This is Franklin’s best chance to do it, but I’m taking history. The Buckeyes win.
OSU Record: 7-0
Week 9 at Wisconsin
ESPN FPI projection: OSU 89.1%
Wisconsin SP+ ranking: 19
Andy: LOSS — Ohio State gets by Penn State but not Wisconsin. The Badgers haven’t defeated the Buckeyes since 2010 when they upset then-No. 1 Ohio State in Madison. At 7-0, the Buckeyes could very well be the top-ranked team again, or close to it. Don’t expect to see a revamped Wisconsin defense shredded like the Badgers were last year. And this Wisconsin offense, loaded with transfer talent, is flying under the radar. This is a bold pick, but I don’t think the Buckeyes get to Week 10 undefeated.
OSU Record: 7-1
Matt: WIN — If you’re a college football fan, you have to love this matchup and the narratives. Camp Randall is no easy place to play. Luke Fickell doesn’t need any motivation to get his program ready for his alma mater. Ohio State in a very close one. The defense wins this game for the Buckeyes.
OSU Record: 8-0
Week 10 at Rutgers
ESPN FPI projection: OSU 97.7%
Rutgers SP+ ranking: 73
Andy: WIN — Yeah, this isn’t going to be close. Ohio State has outscored Rutgers, 477-98, in the teams’ nine meetings. Granted the Scarlet Knights could be decent defensively this season — they boast a strong front seven, plus an intriguing corner pairing of Max Melton and Robert Longerbeam — but there are too many question marks on offense to take Rutgers seriously in this kind of matchup.
OSU Record: 8-1
Matt: WIN — Ohio State in a big blowout. Oh, and no potential for fisticuffs this time between Ryan Day and Greg Schiano, either.
OSU Record: 9-0
Week 11 vs. Michigan State
ESPN FPI projection: OSU 95.8%
Michigan State SP+ ranking: 42
Andy: WIN — This one might be remembered more for the fact that Ohio State played a home night game in November than the actual outcome itself. Michigan State has allowed a combined 826 passing yards to the Buckeyes the last two years. There’s little reason to think Mel Tucker’s defense will be able to contain an Ohio State receiving corps that’s arguably even better in 2023.
OSU Record: 9-1
Matt: WIN — Ohio State moves to 10-0 with a win over Michigan State. A primetime game against an opponent that lost its projected starting quarterback and top wide receiver threat in the portal? Ohio State here.
OSU Record: 10-0
Week 12 vs. Minnesota
ESPN FPI projection: 96.4%
Minnesota SP+ ranking: 31
Andy: WIN — P.J. Fleck has done a remarkable job as Minnesota’s head coach. The Golden Gophers have won nine or more games three of the last four seasons. The exception was the COVID-19-shortened 2020 campaign. What’s more, this Minnesota defense is still scary. Top 10 in scoring defense the last two years, the Gophers are bringing back key pieces such as linebacker Cody Lindenberg, cornerback Justin Walley and D-Lineman Jah Joyner. Minnesota could hang for a bit, but Ohio State will pull away.
OSU Record: 10-1
Matt: WIN — It was a shootout in 2021 with Ohio State edging past the Gophers. By the time this game rolls around, the Buckeyes will be a well-oiled machine. Michigan might creep into their brains, but I like the Buckeyes here on Senior Day.
OSU Record: 11-0
Week 13 at Michigan
ESPN FPI projection: OSU 71.4%
Michigan SP+ ranking: 3
Andy: WIN — Ohio State makes up for the Wisconsin loss by getting the monkey off its back in Ann Arbor. The Buckeyes snap their two-game skid to Michigan and lock up the Big Ten East, clinching a spot in the conference title game for the first time since 2020. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ unit gets revenge on J.J. McCarthy and Co. — in The Big House, no less.
OSU Record: 11-1
Matt: LOSS — This feels like the Big Ten Championship, just a week early. The Wolverines have owned the rivalry for two straight years in dominant fashion. A number of draft-eligible Buckeyes returned just for this game. I don’t see a blowout, but I also haven’t seen — given the last two outings — how Ohio State wins this one.
OSU Record: 11-1
