Oklahoma baseball bubble watch at a glance

If you’re the praying kind, do it. Scoreboard watcher? Needed. If you’re into stones, crystals and rubies, we aren’t going to judge. Every little bit helps, and well, Oklahoma baseball sort of needs help. At the very least, it needs some breaks.

Following a 1-2 showing in Arlington, Oklahoma sits at home the night before Selection Monday in a helpless position. A precarious position. A position you ultimately don’t want to find yourself in on the final day of conference tournament play, hoping and praying someone doesn’t steal their bid.

That’s life on the bubble. The epitome of a bubble team depending on what projection you look at. As of Sunday morning, D1Baseball had the Sooners as the last four in the field. Baseball America has them as First Four out.

By now you probably know the lay of the land. Oklahoma’s metrics tell you they are a tournament team. Oklahoma’s strength of schedule is a positive both overall (No. 14) and in the non-conference (No. 19). OU leads the Big 12 and has the sixth-highest number of RPI top-25 wins nationally, and its 12-11 vs. RPI top-50 prior to last week’s conference tournament was tied with Texas and Oklahoma State for best in the league. Out of conference wins include a pair of wins over Stanford, Dallas Baptist and Oral Roberts. It’s *the* reason why there’s a belief they’ll hear their name called come Monday morning.

That’s the route the NCAA tournament committee went last year when Grand Canyon State and eventual national champion Ole Miss were two of the last teams in the field over the likes of Wofford and North Carolina State. Of course, this year’s committee is different. Will the same criteria and emphasis on non-conference strength of schedule be applied?

The Oklahoma Debate

“There’s a reason why we have a meeting that tells us to schedule RPI,” said Skip Johnson ahead of this past weekend’s Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship. “Let’s just go schedule someone and get to 40 wins. That’s not what it is supposed to be. There’s a reason why we have RPI. We’re the fourth leading RPI in our conference. Our conference is just a small sample of our season. It’s only a third of our season, really. 24 games. You look at it maybe a little over a third.”

It’s the body of work part, particularly aggregate conference record of 12-15 and a head-to-head series loss to bubble mate Kansas State (SoS: 48, Non-conference: 126), that needs to be explained when looking at Oklahoma’s resume under the lens of the NCAA tournament committee. It’s most likely going to be either the Wildcats or Sooners that receive the final bid from the Big 12.

Oklahoma’s metrics are better, but the Wildcats record in conference play and head to head make this debate more uncomfortable.

Final word

“I think that’s the biggest pitch, and plus we won against really good teams. How many times do you go in and beat the Friday and Saturday night starter from Stanford? We got killed on Thursday and Sunday but we beat their two good arms,” Johnson said. “Look at the win going to DBU on a Tuesday night. They were killing people on Tuesday nights. You don’t walk into the University of Texas and sweep the University of Texas in Austin — ever. I thought we did a great job doing that. That shows you enough.

“This is what I really enjoyed about the Big 12. We get overlooked. I think in 2014 there were three teams from the Big 12 in Omaha. Somebody in this league will play in Omaha. Why not us? Why not if we get that opportunity? Nobody believed in us last year. Look what happened. We can do it. We could do that. You saw the greatness in our team in the first game and the second game early. If we play defense which we’ll get better. We’re going to get better doing that. It’s just a rhythm deal. I think that we really played good on the road in big environments. I think that’s a key to it as well.”

Who to watch Sunday

There’s three games on Championship Sunday Sooner fans should be keeping an eye on.

Conference USA Championship – Charlotte vs. Dallas Baptist.

American Athletic Championship – Tulane vs. East Carolina.

Sun Belt Championship – Louisiana vs. Southern Miss.

Charlotte, Tulane and Louisiana winning their conference tournaments would not be good news for Oklahoma. Charlotte has won 10 of its last 12. Tulane would be the talk of the tournament field if they snuck in with a record of 18-40. Arizona’s run to the Pac-12 Tournament title game wasn’t the best news but Sooners fans should feel comfortable when comparing tournament resumes with the Wildcats (RPI: 45, SoS: 26, Non-Conf: 59).

Oklahoma will find out its fate Monday morning during the NCAA Tournament Selection Show at 11 a.m.