ESPN explains Oregon's best- and worst-case scenarios for 2023

This week, ESPN released its preseason power rankings ahead of the 2023 season and included a best- and worst-case scenario for each top-25 ranked team. Ahead of Dan Lanning’s second season at the helm of the Oregon program, the Ducks landed at No. 15.

After a 10-3 finish in 2022 that concluded with a Holiday Bowl win over North Carolina, Lanning and his staff spent the offseason rebuilding their roster. The Ducks added nearly 50 players through the transfer portal and the 2023 signing class

Here’s the rundown on Oregon’s best- and worst-case scenarios from ESPN’s Paolo Uggetti.

“Best case: Making the College Football Playoff. The Ducks have the quarterback to do it, they have the talent and depth to do it, and, if Dan Lanning’s hire was any indication, they should have the defense to do it, too. Additions such as edge rusher Jordan Burch from South Carolina, safety Evan Williams and even true freshman Matayo Uiagalelei should give that side of the ball an improvement they badly need, while Traeshon Holden will give quarterback Bo Nix more firepower to play with. Their toughest games (Utah, USC, Washington and Oregon State) are all interrupted by a game that, on paper, should be easier for the Ducks, meaning there’s no absolutely brutal stretch to their schedule. While USC may be getting more attention, the Ducks have just as good a chance to win the conference in what will also be their final year in the Pac-12.”

As Uggetti notes, Oregon is going to be heavily reliant on players who spent last season elsewhere. In addition to Burch, Williams, Uiagalelei, and Holden, the Ducks have added former Alabama cornerback Khyree Jackson, former Texas offensive lineman Junior Angilau, and former Ole Miss defensive back Tysheem Johnson, among others, to compete for starting spots.

“Worst case: The Ducks’ talent makes their floor pretty high. Things could go wrong if there’s a key injury or two, but their depth should be good enough to keep them afloat in the case of anything unforeseen. The defense needs serious improvement since it will face not just Texas Tech early on, but also the Pac-12’s gauntlet of elite quarterbacks. Matching last year’s win total of 10 should be more than doable, and it’s hard to see them dropping lower than nine wins. Missing the Pac-12 championship would make the season a disappointment, but if the Ducks don’t tighten things up on both sides of the ball, especially late in games, that’s a definite possibility once again this year.”

Injuries could, indeed, be costly for Oregon if they occur at one or two key positions.

In Burch and senior defensive end Brandon Dorlus, the Ducks have a stellar pair of pass-rushers. All-conference nose tackle Popo Aumavae is back after missing the 2022 season due to injury. Senior EDGE Mase Funa is entering his fourth season as a starter with the Ducks and will also be a pivotal figure.

But Oregon’s depth along the edge is concerning. Uiagalelei has impressed during his first fall camp in Eugene and has a chance to be one of the more impactful freshmen in the Pac-12. Fellow ’23 signees Teitum Tuioti and Blake Purchase could make an impact, too.

But Dorlus, Burch, and Funa are the Ducks’ only edge defenders who have a proven track record of success at the college level.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has issued Oregon a record projection of 8.9 wins and 3.4 losses and gives the Ducks a 7.4% chance to reach the College Football Playoff and a 0.7% chance to win the national title.