Penn State-Michigan matchups: What to expect from Nittany Lions, Wolverines

Penn State and Michigan are set to meet on Saturday at Noon.

Which side will have the edge at Beaver Stadium?

The home team has fared well in this series over the last handful of seasons, but the Nittany Lions will need more than just a rowdy crowd backing them to knock off head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team this year.

“Talented football team, like Michigan always is,” Penn State coach James Franklin said Tuesday.

“It’s going to be a tremendous challenge and a tremendous opportunity come Saturday, and that’s why we need everybody in that stadium to create a challenging environment so we can find a way to be 1-0 together.”

It’s time to break down the matchups that will decide the contest.

When Penn State has the ball

Strengths will match in the passing department when Penn State has the ball and Michigan is on defense.

The Wolverines enter the contest with the Big Ten’s second-ranked pass defense. They sport a fine nine-to-six touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio and allow just an average of 173.4 opponent passing yards per game. The Lions, on the other hand, have the conference’s No. 4 aerial attack with an average of 277.7 yards per game.

Penn State will try to run. At this point, though, it’s kind of a given that it won’t be able to do so successfully. That puts two parts of coordinator Mike Yurcich’s unit in focus. One comes up front: How will the Lions deal with terrific rush ends David Ojabo and Aidan Hutchinson? Keeping those two at bay is key to giving quarterback Sean Clifford enough time to find open receivers. That is the Lions’ best path to victory. The two Wolverines lead the Big Ten with eight and seven sacks, a piece. The Lions’ line has been better as pass protecting than run blocking this year, but this will be a stiff test.

On the back end, defensive back Daxton Hill has been producing at Michigan for what feels like forever. He leads the team with a pair of interceptions. Corner Vincent Gray, who has five pass breakups on the season, will likely draw the unenviable task of trying to stop Penn State star Jahan Dotson. His counterpart, DJ Turner, is having a fine year as well. Keep an eye on whether or not defensive back German Green suits up, too.

Finally, don’t sleep on linebacker Josh Ross. He is a game wrecker in the middle and leads coordinator Mike Macdonald’s defense.

Penn State has its work cut out for it on Saturday. Like every week of late, how it performs in the pass game will either carry it to victory or sink it. The offensive line must thrive, and receivers/tight ends besides Dotson have to be ready to be relied upon.

It’s super close, and frankly is probably a tie. We’ll side slightly with the visitors here due to their pass rush propensity combined with a too-often one-dimensional Lions offense.

EDGE: MICHIGAN

When Penn State is on defense

Michigan has some injury issues it is dealing with.

Quarterback Cade McNamara is playing through some things, according to Harbaugh. The Wolverines will mix in J.J. McCarthy under center from time to time, but by and large, this is McNamara’s team.

The veteran passer will certainly have back Hassan Haskins at his disposal, but the other half of Michigan’s thunder and lightning duo, Blake Corum, is banged up and may not be 100 percent if he does play. That will be something to watch closely during pregame warmups.

In the receiving department, tight end Erick All is a key part of the offense. He, too, was injured in last week’s win over Indiana. Cornelius Johnson leads all UM pass catchers with 426 yards and three touchdowns. He has 25 receptions overall.

Michigan is very sound upfront. It has only surrendered six sacks this season, which is tops in the Big Ten.

A talking point you will hear endlessly is that Penn State is the best statistical defense the Wolverines have seen. Will they be ready for the challenge?

Penn State has its own force off the edge in Arnold Ebiketie, and getting Jesse Luketa back after he missed the Maryland game would go a long way toward giving the Lions a better push up front.

The key must be to suffocate McNamara with blitzes from all over. Bottling up the run game and doing that will force coordinator Josh Gattis to pass more than he would like. We’ll write off the Illinois performance as an aberration and say that the Lions can hold up here.

EDGE: PENN STATE

Odds and ends

–Macdonald will face Penn State for the first time after replacing longtime Wolverines defensive play caller Don Brown this offseason.

–Punter Brad Robbins averages 44.75 yards per boot. Sixteen of his 28 punts have resulted in a fair catch.

—Jacob Moody is 10 of 12 on field goal tries. He is four of six on attempts of 40 yards or more and his season long is 52 yards. Forty-three of his 67 kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks.

–Like Penn State, Michigan has not produced much of anything in either the punt or kickoff return games.

Final word

This game is lined as practically a pick ’em in betting circles, and with good reason. It appears that both sides are evenly matched prior to kickoff.

The outcome of the various health questions outlined above will go a long way in shaping the outcome.

Ultimately, how Penn State protects Sean Clifford in addition to how often it pressures or sacks McNamara will be the biggest factor in deciding the winner of this Big Ten East showdown.