Texas Recruiting: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful"

If Texas recruiting was a stock, Warren Buffett, the greatest investor of all time, would be buying.

Right now you’re scared. Other than the last four years you’ve never been here before. You were a seasonal seller in July 2021, 2022 (Arch might go elsewhere and the class will crater), 2023, 2024, and now 2025. It’s yet again “time to cut your losses” and sell, likely lower than your cost basis. You can always buy back this December when it better suits your impulses. 

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Oof.

You’re getting too low when you should never do so. You’re also coming down from a high from the previous cycle you never should have had. I’m not even worth half as much as Buffet but my recruiting maxim, “don’t get too high or too low,” is as sage as his investing advice. That maxim is as trusty as @HelmetBoy ‘s 15-year-old Maxims are crusty. 

The current recruiting climate is obviously in flux. I don’t think Inside Texas, or any site for that matter, has done a good job of creating a flow chart that explains all the ramifications and potential impacts of the House settlement. But, I have been here before. It was the summer of 2021 when NIL was first legalized and “Texas was behind” because it wasn’t paying players for NFT’s (remember those?) like Oregon and Miami. How did that cycle finish?

Steve Sarkisian brings up a couple of things any time he speaks publicly for more than five minutes. One is culture, the other is the importance of adaptability. One thing that makes Sark so adaptable is he’s often working with inside information. In my view, Texas is as politically connected, and therefore forward thinking, as any school as it pertains to the ever-changing landscape of college athletics. Nothing seems to come as a surprise to Texas. Not to brag, but IT, at least as far as team-specific coverage, has been at the forefront of covering the changing landscape. First it was SEC realignment and how NIL benefitted Texas as much or more than any school. Recently it was about how quickly House was coming about. IT is ahead only because Texas is ahead.

So, here we find ourselves in a seemingly brand new era after a recently brand new era. Causes for concern seem largely unfounded, despite the recent run of recruiting misses. If you’re reading Ross Dellenger you’ll realize nothing is real in recruiting right now. Deals aren’t ironclad. Upfront money is often “illegal,” meaning, a recruit can take the pay day and sign elsewhere. Recall last cycle when I started saying it’s one thing to buy a commitment but another to gain the signature. We’re largely still there. Taking upfront money and signing with a different school is like robbing a drug house. Who is going to call the cops? Hell, despite the new commission, nobody even seems to know who the cops are.

Entering this cycle I said to disregard the 2025 No. 1 recruiting class. I’ve always said every cycle takes on its own personality. Last year, Texas almost had to have the No. 1 class in order to address needs. That isn’t the case this year. More importantly, I said there would be some questions given the pending House ruling. If that was a recruiting cycle map, You Are Here.

How much better did you feel when Josiah Sharma flipped from Oregon less than a month after he chose the Ducks? How did you feel when Jonah Williams, who very few predicted to Texas, chose Texas before his senior season? While still feeling euphoric after the Michigan game, do you remember the chaser of Myron Charles flipping from Florida State? S*** like that awaits.

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Don’t get me wrong, there are still things to work out in this cycle, but recruiting can turn in the blink of an eye, and with it your entire investment outlook.