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Texas vs Florida: Assigning Probabilities for Four Potential Outcomes

Eric Nahlinby: Eric Nahlin10/03/25
NCAA Football: Texas El Paso at Texas
Sep 13, 2025; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) passes the ball during the first half against the Texas El Paso Miners at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Texas opens SEC play at Florida in a pivotal early-season showdown. Can Arch Manning build on his growth? Will Tre Wisner spark the run game? A closer look at both teams’ strengths, weaknesses, and key matchups allow us to assign probabilities by who will win and if it will be close.