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USC remains a Top-10 team in ESPN's FPI following loss to Illinois

Erik-McKinneyby: Erik McKinney09/28/25ErikTMcKinney
USC quarterback Jayden Maiava
USC quarterback Jayden Maiava (acscottphotography/WeAreSC)

The voters booted the USC Trojans out of the Top 25 polls this week, but the computers are still high on Lincoln Riley’s program. Following the 34-32 loss that was delivered by Illinois on the final snap of the game, ESPN’s FPI dropped USC just two places this week, down to No. 10.

Definition of ESPN’s FPI Rankings: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.”

That’s actually less of a drop than USC had in the FPI the previous week, following a win against Michigan State. The Trojans were only jumped by Notre Dame and Miami this week.

The projected win-loss record for USC via the FPI is 8.6-3.5 and USC has just a 1.5% chance to win out. The numbers give Notre Dame, a future USC opponent, by far the best percentage change to win out, at 39.1%.

USC’s chance to win the Big Ten Conference dipped significantly, down to just 2.6%, which ranks No. 5 in the conference but slightly ahead of Penn State. And the Trojans now have the No. 20 playoff percentage odds at 21.4%. That’s also No. 6 in the Big Ten.

The Trojans still have a sliver of a shot at a national championship this season, according to the FPI. USC is at 1.3% there, dwarfed by the top two teams in the Big Ten — Ohio State at 17% and Oregon at 15.6%.

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Garry Paskwietz (1966-2019)

Garry Paskwietz was a pioneer in bringing team-specific sports coverage to the internet. He founded WeAreSC in 1998 and was an Emmy winner for his work with Fox Sports West. Always generous with his time, knowledge, and compassion, he touched the lives of countless USC and high school football fans.

Garry Paskwietz